Summary of the 30th review: The Hormuz crisis reshapes pricing logic: oil and aluminum resonance, risk aversion intensifies

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March 30 Re-cap Summary: The Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Pricing Logic: Oil–Aluminum Resonance, Risk-Off Upgrades

Today, the global bulk commodities market has entered a “geopolitical extreme pricing” mode. Driven by the sudden escalation of developments in the Middle East, market logic has shifted completely from macro demand fluctuations to an extreme contest over supply security.

1． Energy side: Brent holds the 115 level, “strait risk” becomes normalized

As the risk of a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz evolves into a real threat, Brent crude continues to strengthen. The Trump administration’s tough statements about taking over key oil production hubs have wiped out the market’s last bit of liquidity premium. At present, 20% of the world’s crude oil and LNG trade faces disruption, and the “second shock” of energy inflation is forcing global supply chains to reassess inventory strategies.

2． Metals side: A “black swan” hits the aluminum market, while copper is supported by strong AI demand

An attack on a core Middle East aluminum plant ignited the LME market, sending aluminum futures soaring more than 4% to a high near 3492/t. Meanwhile, although the macro environment is under pressure, mega-scale AI computing power projects such as Tesla TERAFAB create a just-need for grid upgrades, supporting copper prices to stay resilient at elevated levels. The metals market is showing a new pattern driven by two lines: “geopolitical supply interruptions” and the “AI industry transformation.”

3． Risk-off side: Gold whips violently around the 4500 level

Spot gold shows high volatility around 4500/oz. While the war premium and inflation expectations provide strong support, the market’s defensive psychology regarding aggressive rate hikes by central banks has led some long positions to take profits.

Technical assessment method: from big to small

Are bulk commodities overall up or down? Choppy

The strongest sector in commodities is: precious metals, oil, and new energy

The strongest products are: container shipping (Europe line), pure benzene, lithium carbonate, and heating oil

Conclusion: In China, most commodity contracts surge and then retrace, maintaining a choppy trading trend; the main approach is to look more, trade less.

Global outlook:

Currently, the global bulk commodities market is being disrupted by both geopolitics and macro data. Repeated Fed rate-hike expectations are suppressing risk appetite; energy commodities such as crude oil fluctuate with the Middle East situation; overseas industrial goods demand is weak. Domestically, there is disagreement between policy expectations for stabilizing growth and the recovery pace of the real economy: industrial goods surge and then pull back, while agricultural products diverge due to weather and consumption expectation impacts. Overall, the market shows an “tight outside, stable inside” pattern. Risk-hedging sentiment is warming up, trend-based opportunities are fewer, volatility is increasing, and in terms of execution, it is better to look more and trade less while avoiding frequent trading that erodes earlier profits.

I. Core trading instruments and strategy execution

- Methanol (MA605): Capture long-side trend swings. Take partial profits in batches (half position), then for the remaining holding use a dynamic trailing stop (adjusting the floating profit/loss spread in the 150-330 point range). Finally, when the price pulls back, an automatic take-profit and exit is triggered, fully realizing trend profits.

- Lithium carbonate (c2605): Build long-side positions in parallel. Hold 7 lots, up 16%. Still holding and waiting on the sidelines, looking for further confirmation of the trend.

- Risk control: Rigorously implement position management. Methanol total position is 38 lots and lithium carbonate is 7 lots, avoiding overexposure in any single product; lock in profits with a floating take-profit mechanism to effectively guard against the risk of a surge followed by a pullback.

II. Overall trading results

- Methanol long-side trading achieved the highest stage profit of 66%; lithium carbonate long-side profit was 16%. Overall account returns grew steadily and robustly. Successfully captured the third methanol trend-based opportunity this year, effectively increasing the account’s equity.

III. Re-cap and reflections

- Trend judgment: Precisely identify the methanol long-side main upswing, but the prediction of the pullback rhythm after the surge was insufficient. The dynamic take-profit distance needs further optimization to adapt to different volatility phases.

- Sector rotation: Clear divergence between industrial goods and agricultural products. Going forward, it is necessary to strengthen comparative analysis of relative strength across sectors, and prioritize trading core products within the stronger sectors.

- Trading discipline: Rigorously follow the “look more, trade less” principle. Avoid frequently opening positions during choppy markets, effectively protect earlier profits, and align with the core logic of trend trading—“make big money from the big trend, control small drawdowns.”

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Responsible editor: Dai Ming SF006