Confusing negotiation signals, unclear prospects for Middle East ceasefire, and gold and oil experience rollercoaster market movements.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 26 afternoon, US President Trump posted on social media, saying that “at the request of the Iranian government,” he will postpone “destructive” actions against Iran’s energy facilities by 10 days, with the deadline extended to 20:00 April 6 Eastern Time in the US (8:00 April 7 Beijing Time).

Trump said that the relevant negotiations are underway and that progress is “very smooth.”

It is worth noting that the timing of this post was after the close of trading on Thursday in the US stock market. On that day, the Nasdaq Composite Index recorded its largest single-day drop since the outbreak of war. Spot gold therefore rose by more than $60 in the short term. WTI crude oil plunged by nearly $5, and US stock index futures quickly surged.

On the 26th, after rising for two consecutive days, the gold price fell again. Investors were waiting for clearer signs of progress in the Middle East situation. Market optimism cooled somewhat. Because of worries that the conflict could escalate and further disrupt energy flows, WTI on Thursday recouped more than half of the largest drop from Monday. Brent crude oil futures remained steadily above $100 per barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude oil futures for May settled at $94.48 per barrel that day, up 4.61%; London Brent crude oil futures for May settled at $108.01 per barrel, up 5.66%.

Trump has twice postponed its plan to strike Iran’s energy facilities. He previously, on the 21st, threatened on social media that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, otherwise he would destroy its various power plants. On the 23rd, he again posted on social media, saying that the dialogue between the US and Iran over the past two days was “very good and productive,” and that the US would “postpone by 5 days” airstrikes against Iran’s power plants.

Earlier on the 26th, Trump also unveiled what he called a “big gift” from Iran to the US during a cabinet meeting: allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said that controlling Iran’s oil is “one option,” but that he will not discuss it now. He claimed that this is a “big gift” Iran sent to show its sincerity in negotiations, and that the negotiations “have found the right people.”

However, on the 26th, Lebanon’s “Plaza” TV station cited an Iranian official as saying that Trump’s remarks about Iran’s “big gift” are political showmanship and lack factual basis. Iranian media also reported that the Strait of Hormuz is currently still closed to the US and Israel.

Trump’s claims that Iran is urgently hoping to reach an agreement conflict with statements from the Iranian side. According to reports by US media, a mediator involved in the peace talks disclosed that Iran has not asked the US to suspend its strikes against its energy facilities, nor has it given a final response regarding the 15-point plan to end the war. An insider said that Iran would not agree to negotiate a possible ceasefire agreement in meetings until the US agreed to scale down the demands included in its 15-point plan. The insider said that Iran is open to talks, but believes the US proposal goes too far, and that its demands include: dismantling most of Iran’s nuclear projects, ending support for regional allies, and limiting missile programs.

Up to now, both the US and Iran have insisted that they have the upper hand in the war. The US has proposed the 15 points of a ceasefire agreement; Iran rejected the US proposal and put forward Iran’s conditions for a ceasefire, which include demands for compensation. Israel is concerned that the war could end suddenly and is racing against time to carry out as many airstrikes as possible on targets inside Iran.