I recently came across an analysis from CryptoQuant that I found quite interesting. They tracked the trend of Bitcoin open interest and price over the past year, and identified a clear turning point in October.

It's also interesting to note that from early to mid-2025, Bitcoin's performance appeared quite consistent. Open interest steadily increased from around $30 billion to between $35 billion and $45 billion, while the price moved from $110,000 to $125,000. Everything seemed to be within expectations. But then, in October, there was a sharp shift.

CryptoQuant's analysts pointed out what happened on October 10 and 11. Approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, causing the market to suddenly shed 70,000 BTC in open interest. This was not just a typical price fluctuation; it was a forced reset of the entire market leverage structure.

Even more interesting are the subsequent developments. After October, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market turned into a rare negative correlation. You should know that Bitcoin has traditionally been a high-beta version of stocks—when the S&P 500 rises, Bitcoin tends to surge even more; when it falls, it drops even harder. But after deleveraging, this synchronized relationship broke down. Stocks rebounded on AI-driven profit growth, but Bitcoin did not follow.

What is the current situation? Open interest has dropped to $21.9 billion, a sharp decline from the October high of $45 billion. Plus, the outflow from spot BTC ETFs has turned into selling pressure. The institutional funds that previously drove the 2024 bull market are now acting as resistance.

Interestingly, some contrarian signs have recently appeared. As geopolitical tensions heat up and stocks come under pressure due to energy prices and inflation concerns, Bitcoin has actually strengthened during the same period. However, analysts emphasize that this seems more like tactical capital rotation rather than a fundamental reassessment of Bitcoin's asset status.

The current market condition is quite fragmented. Bitcoin and stocks are reacting to different signals, which is uncommon in history. But if you look back, all of this traces back to the leverage liquidation in October. The question now is whether this decoupling will persist or reconnect. It depends on ETF liquidity, whether open interest can recover, and how macroeconomic conditions evolve.

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around $68,000. The deleveraging process has reduced structural barriers for new capital to enter. The next move will depend on how these three variables perform.