#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April Fools' Day saw both the US and Iran soften their stance—true ceasefire or just a false one?

Today’s biggest news is the sudden de-escalation of the Middle East situation.
First, Trump eased up.
He said on social media that the US will end its conflict with Iran within “two to three weeks.”
More importantly, the second half: even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, military operations can end.
He also threw the ball back to allies, saying the Strait of Hormuz concerns their own interests, and they should fight for it themselves.
Then Iran also showed some flexibility.
President Raisi said, “We are willing to end the war if security guarantees are provided.”
This is a rare official statement about negotiations, and the conditions are very low.
Originally, the US and Iran, who don’t want war and don’t trust each other, suddenly seem to be on the path to reconciliation.
But that’s not the case.
The US military’s actions are more honest than words.
The USS Bush aircraft carrier set out for the Middle East with over 6,000 sailors, and the 82nd Airborne Division has already arrived with thousands of troops.
While calling for withdrawal, they are also increasing troops—this familiar move is exactly like the trade war “can sign an agreement at any time” and tariffs being raised simultaneously.
Iran is also playing both sides.
On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said, “There is only information exchange, no negotiations.”
They continue to maintain a non-negotiation stance with the US.
The US and Iran are still in confrontation.
The apparent easing between the two sides is probably just to ease current pressure: Trump aims to ease domestic pressure from soaring oil prices, and Iran aims to ease the pressure from recent bombings of infrastructure by the US and Israel.
Both sides are acting in their own interest, but the situation of mutual sabotage to determine the outcome remains unchanged.
However, the market still trusts Trump.
Overnight, US stocks surged—S&P 500 up 2.9%, Nasdaq up 3.8%, the best single-day gain since May last year.
Brent crude oil also fell below $100, and the crypto market rebounded strongly!
Funds are betting on a US-Iran ceasefire.
But betting is one thing; the real difficulties won’t disappear just because Trump says so.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains, bombing in the Middle East continues, oil supplies are still disrupted, and destruction of energy production facilities persists.
Rising oil prices and energy disruptions are already impacting the global economy.
For example, the Eurozone’s March CPI surged 1.9% month-over-month, the largest increase since 2022.
Energy prices are pushing inflation back to high levels.
Additionally, global central banks have sold US Treasuries for five consecutive weeks, totaling over $90 billion, with holdings dropping to the lowest since 2012.
Led by Turkey, followed by Thailand and India—oil-importing countries are selling US bonds to exchange for dollars to buy expensive oil.
The US financial system is also under pressure.
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz isn’t lifted soon, it will not only cause inflation but also lead to an economic slowdown, plunging the world into stagflation. The US won’t be immune either.
This time, Trump can’t just “say he’s winning and walk away,” he must actually address the Middle East issue.

So, it’s not the time for excessive optimism; close monitoring of the situation’s development is necessary.
What’s certain is that both sides have little room left, and the matter should be resolved quickly; otherwise, the whole world will suffer.