Recently, the news from the Middle East has been quite intense. Let me briefly summarize the key points from these past few days.

1. Ceasefire Signals and Internal Conflicts
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (a moderate) publicly stated that they are willing to end the war, but require the U.S. and Israel to provide reliable guarantees of "non-aggression." After this statement, global stock markets surged. However, shortly after, Iran's Deputy Speaker of Parliament said: According to the constitution, the decision to go to war or peace lies with the Supreme Leader, and no negotiations have been approved yet. In other words, there is no unified stance internally, and the so-called "ceasefire" might just be a test.

2. Trump’s Threats and U.S. Military Movements
Trump publicly said he is "seriously considering withdrawing from NATO," but this is more of a tactic to pressure European countries (complaining they didn't help during Iran conflicts). In reality, the threshold for the U.S. to withdraw is very high and difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, the U.S. military is still reinforcing in the Middle East, with the third aircraft carrier, the 82nd Airborne Division, and Marine Corps units on the way, totaling about 53,000 troops. On one hand, they call for a ceasefire; on the other, they are deploying large forces. It doesn’t look like they’re truly planning to withdraw.

3. Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices dropped sharply during the day yesterday but rebounded by evening, indicating market uncertainty about the situation. Iran said it would open the Strait of Hormuz later but not to the U.S. This strait has little impact on the U.S., but it significantly affects energy imports for Japan (78%), South Korea (68%), and China (about 40%). If Iran uses this as leverage, the main impact will be on Asia and Europe.

4. Buffett’s Market Rescue Episode
After two months of declines in the U.S. stock market, Warren Buffett came out saying, "We have plenty of cash, and when prices fall enough, we’ll buy," providing some reassurance to the market. Interestingly, Iran initially threatened to target U.S. company branches (causing U.S. stocks to plunge), then quickly signaled willingness to cease fire (stocks surged). This maneuver has been humorously called "drawing a K-line" (a reference to stock chart patterns).

Currently, it seems Iran’s moderates want to negotiate, but the Supreme Leader has not yet given the nod; the U.S. military’s troop buildup could be either pressure for negotiations or preparations for action; oil prices haven’t fallen enough, indicating a ceasefire isn’t imminent. In the short term, markets are fluctuating based on news, so investors should stay cautious.