Can the RMB exchange rate stabilize within the "6 yuan range"?

In the foreign exchange market, China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), has appreciated. On January 5, the RMB-to-USD exchange rate reached the range of 1 USD to 6.97 yuan, marking the strongest level of RMB appreciation and USD depreciation since 2 years and 8 months ago. Factors such as the continuously accumulating trade surplus have created pressure to sell the dollar and buy the RMB. To avoid an economic downturn, relevant Chinese authorities have shown a restraining attitude toward RMB appreciation.

Annual trade surplus first exceeds $1 trillion

The RMB rose at one point on December 30, 2025 to 1 USD to 6.9870 yuan, breaking through the important level of 7 yuan and intensifying the appreciation. This was the first time the rate had broken above 7 yuan since May 2023. On January 5, 2026, it once again rose further to 1 USD to 6.9770 yuan.

When trade frictions between the United States and China peaked in mid-April 2025, the RMB exchange rate fell to 1 USD to 7.3518 yuan, hitting the lowest level in 17 years and 4 months. After the United States and China reached an agreement to reduce tariffs in May 2025, the exchange rate began to rebound, rising 5% compared with the April 2025 low point.

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