BTC Market Analysis 2026.04.01

BTC still hasn't broken out of its trend today, so the outlook remains unchanged.

The rebound starting from 60,000 is nearing its end. The subsequent trend of this rebound can be divided into two paths: red and blue.

Red Path: Recently breaking through and stabilizing above 70,000, followed by strong upward momentum. If this continues, we might see BTC reach a high point above 76,000 next week. After that, the rebound from 60,000 could end at any time, followed by a decline comparable to the 97,900-60,000 level.

Blue Path: In the coming days, the market may continue to fluctuate or decline gradually. Under this scenario, 76,000 will become the rebound's endpoint, followed by a correction from 76,000 to 65,000. After the rebound ends, BTC will accelerate downward, breaking below 60,000.

After the daily close on April 2, it is not allowed to effectively break below 65,000 (the daily candlestick cannot close below this level), otherwise, not only does the likelihood of the red path decrease, but even the rebound height of the blue path will be limited.

Trend Analysis: BTC is in a weekly downtrend. The move from 60,000 is a daily-level rebound that will likely end in mid to late April. After the rebound ends, another daily-level decline will occur, completing the first wave of a full weekly decline. There may be a large-scale rebound afterward, or it could turn into sideways consolidation targeting the decline. We will observe this later; for now, focus on managing the current market. #btc $BTC