In March, the national carbon market prices remained stable with steady volume; April's CEA price index is expected to rise across the board.

Source: Securities Times Network | Author: Zhang Shuxian

A report on the Fudan University Center for Sustainable Development (hereinafter referred to as the “Research Center”) released recently shows that the April 2026 Fudan Carbon Pricing Index indicates that the price indices for China’s national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) are expected to rise across the board in April. Among them, the expected buying price for April CEA is 77.09 yuan/ton, the expected selling price is 83.50 yuan/ton, and the mid price is 80.30 yuan/ton; the buying price index is 192.73, up 3.16%; the selling price index is 188.40, up 0.81%; and the mid price index is 190.46, up 10.33%.

The Research Center also summarized the operation of the national carbon market in March. In terms of prices, the month’s average daily closing price for CEA was 81.04 yuan/ton, up slightly by about 1.64% compared with February’s average daily closing price of 79.73 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s carbon prices showed the characteristics of range-bound trading at high levels. In the first half of the month, prices fluctuated moderately between 80.5 and 83.2 yuan/ton. In mid-month, prices briefly surged to 82.45 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the price center of gravity shifted slightly down to the 79.5 to 81.95 yuan/ton range. Compared with the previous month, the overall fluctuation range narrowed, with the single-day gain/loss not exceeding 5%, indicating that market sentiment has become more stable.

In terms of trading volume, the month’s average daily trading volume for CEA was 2.643 million tons, up about 6.1% from February’s 2.491 million tons. Although the overall trading scale remains at a low level, there were consecutive periods of increased volume in mid-month. From March 10 to 16, trading volume remained between 4.2 million and 6.3 million tons for five consecutive days, forming this month’s trading peak. This reflects that some companies adjusted their allowance holdings or adopted strategic positioning during periods of price fluctuations.

The Research Center said that, overall, the national carbon market in the post-performance fulfillment period shows the characteristics of “prices steady and volume level.” The price center of gravity remains stable with a modest upward trend, but trading activity is still insufficient, and most market participants take a wait-and-see approach.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Carbon market