Hexun Investment Advisor Gao Luming: Is the right-side accumulation opportunity here?

The market rebound has entered a critical pressure level, and last night new developments emerged from the Strait of Hormuz, bringing fresh changes to the situation on the periphery. How will the market play out today? Can the rebound continue? What should we do right now?

First, let’s look at the news backdrop. Yesterday, Iran’s National Security Council passed a bill to supervise and levy fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and it clearly prohibits U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting. This move runs counter to expectations from the U.S. side—essentially adding new restrictions on passage through the strait, which is a negative for global markets. At the same time, the U.S. side emphasized that it is conducting serious negotiations for a more rational regime to end the war, and warned that if the strait is not opened as soon as possible, it will strike Iran’s oil facilities and power plants. Iran, in turn, responded that the U.S.’s peace proposals are unrealistic. It is clear that the peripheral situation still has significant uncertainty, creating a negative impact on global markets. Another piece of news came from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In an event, he said that while external conflicts may trigger a rise in inflation, for now the Fed will remain on watch and is not eager to take the next step. This statement reduces market concerns about the Fed’s rate hikes in the near term and instead becomes a positive.

Back to the market itself. There may still be an opportunity to rally higher during today’s trading session, but you need to watch several key points; otherwise, it could turn into a rally-high volatility pattern or even a direct correction. First, changes in the peripheral situation have a big impact on the market. If new negative news emerges during the session, the index may fall again regardless of whether it is consolidating or rallying higher. At present, the peripheral factors’ influence on the market even exceeds the technical factors. Second, the market has entered an important rebound pressure level. This rebound, which started on March 23, has lasted for 5 days so far. Typically, a rebound cycle runs from 5 to 7 days. The index has already touched the 10-day moving average pressure level, roughly around 3922 points. During the rebound, volume has consistently failed to expand. If you want to break above the 10-day moving average and move upward to fill the gap, today must see a pickup in volume. Otherwise, the difficulty of breaking through remains high. Third, the heavyweight sector must make its stance clear. Currently, the rebound mainly relies on oversold directions and defensive products such as seeds and consumption. If the large traditional sectors do not step up, it will be hard to open up room for the rebound, and it could even form interim highs.

In terms of the trading strategy, today you need to closely watch the intraday feedback. If the index can effectively stand above the 10-day moving average and fill the gap, you can continue to hold for observation. If it shows weakening within a range, it will present an important T+0 opportunity. Since March 3, when we prompted that the market was forming a high point and advised reducing position size, the market has already played out a rebound structure of wave one, wave two, wave three, and wave four. If the current area weakens, it will most likely usher in a fifth wave pullback, and even test the lows to the downside. At that time, an important high-point T opportunity will form. It needs to be emphasized that this is a point to reduce costs, not a moment to panic out of positions. Because after the market pulls back, it will most likely form an important low point—an important opportunity to reduce positions or for a T+0 trade.

（责任编辑：张岩 ）

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