Hexun Investment Advisor Lü Nimang: Monday Market Summary, the rebound will not happen overnight

Today’s market saw a thrilling intraday bottoming-and-rebound session. In the morning, all three major indices collectively opened lower due to external factors, and panic sentiment briefly spread, but then an independent trading pattern emerged. In the end, the market climbed back above 3923 points and reclaimed the 5-day moving average. Given such a strong repair, is it a false move designed to lure investors, or the starting point of an independent trend? Tomorrow, Tuesday, will be the key turning point for A-shares shifting from defense to offense.

Clear view: Tomorrow, A-shares will most likely continue a choppy upward trend, working to fill the upside gap. But the rebound won’t happen all at once; it will require continued volume expansion to cooperate. The market is still in the phase of “trading time for space” as it builds a bottom.

First, today and last Friday both showed a bottoming-and-rebound pattern in A-shares. Against a backdrop of broad-based weakness in the broader market, A-shares moved stronger on their own, indicating that the current level offers a prominent price-to-value advantage and that capital has strong follow-through capacity. Second, when the market fell in the morning, multiple ETFs clearly increased volume, suggesting the participants were institutions or mysterious funds. However, after the index rose above 3900 points, it did not continue to expand volume, showing that capital was only propping up around 3850 to support the market rather than actively pulling it up. Overall, it exhibits a “support but do not drive” characteristic, and the buy-support strength below 3900 remains strong.

Currently, trading volume has been below 2 trillion for three straight days, which is clearly at an extremely low level. With volume unlikely to fall much further, the market has reached an important turning point. Going forward, it will need major positive catalysts accompanied by volume expansion to break the pattern of low-volume consolidation and volatility. The expected time window is after Qingming. If volume remains insufficient, investors will either hold onto their positions firmly and not get shaken out, or stay in cash and wait on the sidelines.

Judging by sector performance, today’s leading sectors—oil, coal, and agriculture—are defensive sectors, indicating that the market is prioritizing stability first. After that, as long as brokerages and technology continue to take the baton, the profit-making effect will be fully unleashed. The power sector fell behind today, which is capital fearing the highs and taking profits; for confirming the bottom, that’s actually a good thing. The energy and resources line will keep reviving and staying active afterward, and it won’t end quickly. Today, oversold themes such as commercial space and innovative drugs rotated into gains, showing that the market still mainly operates through fast rotations. Ordinary retail investors don’t need to force themselves to catch every switch.

At present, the main market has already produced clear bottoming signals. The lows on March 25, March 27, and today have all held steadily above 3900 points. A double-bottom formation is being constructed. As long as support does not break, the rebound will arrive soon. On the longer cycle, when most people start to worry, it is often when capital quietly positions itself. A bit more contrarian thinking and patience will help.

(Editor-in-charge: Zhang Yan)

     【Disclaimer】This article only represents the author’s personal views and is not related to Hexun.com. The Hexun website maintains neutrality toward the statements, opinions, and judgments made in the text, and does not provide any express or implied guarantee regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content included. Readers are advised to use this information only as a reference and assume all responsibility themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com

Report