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Fidelity: Bitcoin's retracement during this cycle has "significantly narrowed"
Golden Finance reports that on April 1, Fidelity Digital Assets said that during this market cycle, Bitcoin’s drawdown is about 50%, far smaller than in previous cycles, and that this trend may continue for the long term.
Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out on Tuesday that historically, the pullback after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high has always been severe, generally reaching 80% to 90%, while the drawdown in this cycle is only about 50%. He said that based on the price performance after each historical peak, it is clearly possible to see a pattern of diminishing returns for Bitcoin across cycles. “The upside breakout strength of each bull market is weaker than the previous one, and the downside risk in the current cycle in 2026 is also similarly reduced by a large margin.”
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin touched this cycle’s low point just above $600,000 on February 6, representing a 52% drawdown from its historical high of about $1.26 million on October 6; the current price is down 46% from its six-month-prior peak. By comparison, the previous cycle saw an even more dramatic drop: Bitcoin fell from its historical high of $690,000 in June 2021 all the way down to below the $160,000 bear-market low in November 2022, for a cumulative drawdown of as much as 77%.