Overall, in the short term, gold prices may continue to experience high volatility and wide-range fluctuations, with intense battles between bullish and bearish sentiments.

📈 Bullish and bearish viewpoints are competing

Recently, gold prices rebounded above $4,660, but there are clear disagreements among institutions about the future direction.

📊 Bullish / Support Factors

· Rate cut expectations: Powell stated that there will be no rate hikes due to rising oil prices for now, reigniting hopes for a rate cut in June and suppressing the dollar.
· Technical momentum: Gold prices remain above key moving averages, with MACD red bars expanding, indicating sufficient short-term bullish momentum.
· Long-term allocation: Central banks’ gold purchases and the weakening logic of dollar credit remain unchanged, and institutions believe the long-term bull market is not over.

📉 Bearish / Resistance Factors

· Liquidity risk: Elevated oil prices reinforce expectations of higher and prolonged interest rates, with some central banks (like Turkey) selling gold to obtain liquidity.
· Technical resistance: The $4,600–$4,800 range is a historically dense trading zone, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages still trending downward, forming resistance.
· Short-term bearish outlook: Companies like Heryers believe market turbulence may suppress central bank gold purchases, and the short-term trend remains biased toward bearishness.

📅 Core variables influencing the trend

The key factors determining gold price movements in the coming days mainly depend on the following three elements:

1. Geopolitical risks (most critical): The US-Israel-Iran situation is crucial for ups and downs. If conflicts escalate, gold prices may surge; if there is “conflict and negotiation,” gold prices are more likely to fall than rise.
2. Federal Reserve policy signals: Focus on this week’s US ADP employment and non-farm payroll data. Weak data will be positive for gold; otherwise, it will be negative.
3. Key technical and capital levels:
· Resistance above: $4,700–$4,800. A strong breakout could trigger a new rally.
· Support below: If it falls below $4,600, it may retest previous lows at $4,500 or even $4,400.

💡 Trend summary and strategic reference

In the short term, there is a high probability that gold will fluctuate within the $4,600–$4,800 range. The current rebound is more seen as emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal, so caution is advised against chasing highs.

In terms of trading strategies, aggressive investors can rely on support levels to buy low and sell high, but strict stop-losses are necessary; prudent investors may wait for clearer signals. Long-term, most institutions believe the bullish logic for gold remains intact, and recent deep corrections are viewed as strategic buying opportunities.

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