Hold cash to avoid the tide risk, with the core market strategy for tomorrow in section 4.2

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The essence of short-term trading is “borrowing momentum to make quick money”—borrowing the heat of themes, borrowing the strength of capital collaboration, and borrowing the momentum of trends.

You must adhere to three iron laws:

Only trade strength, never chase weakness;

Go long online and stay cautious offsite—if the line breaks, retreat; move fast in and out;

Focus on the core, and stay away from random junk.

I. What is the core, and what is junk?

II. How to identify and trade the “core”?

Step one: Lock in the strongest sector of the day

After the first 30 minutes after the open, check the “Sector Performance Ranking” on iTonghuashun or Eastmoney.
Exclude one-day wonders; choose sectors with policy support, events, and sustained logical catalysts.
Look for sectors with ≥3 stocks hitting limit-up, and a complete ladder (there are first boards and second boards).

Step two: Find the core within the strongest sector

Space dragon: The stock with the highest number of consecutive limit-ups in the sector (e.g., a 5-day limit-up streak).
Popularity dragon: The stock with the largest trading volume and highest discussion level in the sector (not necessarily the one with the most limit-ups).
Trend dragon: The “main body” large-cap stock in the sector that rises steadily along the 5-day/10-day lines.

Step three: Ultimate discipline of “focusing on the core”

Buy only first place: Under conditions that allow it, only buy the highest-status stock in that sector. If you’re not confident buying the leader, it’s better not to trade that sector.

Buy on divergence, sell on consensus:

Entry point: When the core leader experiences its first benign divergence (e.g., after a sharp selloff at the open it’s quickly pulled back above the moving average; or after a board break, it quickly re-closes).
Exit point: After the core leader accelerates and the market reaches consensus bullishness (e.g., after consecutive one-word limit-ups, the first time it explodes in volume; or at the high level when a massive volume stall occurs).
If the board breaks, leave: For consecutive-limit-up leaders, if they can’t hit limit-up that day (board break), and the next day they don’t re-close to the limit, exit immediately—no wishful thinking.

III. How to thoroughly “stay away from junk”?

Proactive blocking: In your watchlist, keep only core names; don’t look at the stocks in the last few pages of the gain/loss leaderboard.
Refuse temptation: When you see junk suddenly shoot up in a straight line, ask yourself: “Is it the leader? If not, why is it being pushed up?” (The answer is usually: to distribute).
Position constraints: Even if you want to use a tiny position to test junk, strictly cap any single junk position at no more than 2% of total funds—mechanically preventing the possibility of a big loss.
Post-trade reflection: If that day’s loss came from junk, record it as a priority in your trading log, reinforcing the “junk = loss” muscle memory.

Core trading principles

In the short-term market, capital and attention are scarce resources—always concentrate them on the brightest places. “Core” gets liquidity premium and sentiment premium; “junk” suffers liquidity discount and fear of selling pressure. Your job is not to dig for undervalued opportunities; it’s to dance with the market’s strongest capital in full public view, and leave first before the music changes key.

Remember: In short-term trading, every act of pity or luck toward junk is a betrayal of your principal. The biggest profits come from the core, and the biggest losses often come from refusing to cut losses on junk.

Friends, if the article helps, please help push it so it becomes a featured post sooner. Only when the article data ranks ahead can you apply for more opportunities like live streams, where you can learn more knowledge from all of you.
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You only have a handful of stocks to pick each day; memorizing the entry points isn’t hard either. Otherwise, even if you copy it, you can buy while watching it during the session. In the strategy, if there is an entry point, you buy; if there isn’t, you stay flat. That’s more efficient than most people rushing around every day doing this and that.**

What short-term trading fears most is not respecting the objective order book, liking to imagine things your own way. When a stock is down a little, down a lot, or even cut in half, you can always convince yourself it’s just a pullback. What does “trade with the trend” mean? So cognition determines whether you can hold onto the money you earn. Even if last month you managed to follow stocks like Huadian Liaoning Energy and made a huge profit, can you also follow by going flat when needed afterward? Or do you end up not being able to control your hands, slowly giving back the money you made? Then when the market recovers, you’re afraid of losses again, or you have no position. The first time you fail to buy, others who are flat buy first, and the gap keeps getting bigger.
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Today’s positions: No position (all cash)**
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Yesterday’s strategy: **

1. Jianjian Co., Ltd. (Shenjian Shares) bidding meets the criteria, but the sector has no stock support/assist. It never touched the board all day, so PASS

2. Huadian Liaoning Energy and Huadian Energy clearly said the point to exit is during the spike up. This is already a rebound repair in the de-risking/declining phase. Combined with the fact that Min Dong Electric (闽东电力), which hit limit-up first yesterday, didn’t even give any premium at the open; the three major core stocks had deep-water openings. These are all exit signals.

3. Shenzhou High-Speed Rail opened strong even though its large-order one-character met the bidding criteria, but the sector’s stocks all went weak. With no limit-up assist from any stock, there’s no sector effect support. At this point, when it comes to closing back up, you have to observe the strength of the orders and whether the sector stocks follow. Clearly, the orders were withdrawn within just a few seconds. And the sector didn’t return, and even further retreated—like Anhui Construction (安徽建工) falling even more. This doesn’t meet the criteria, so PASS.

So this is why I keep emphasizing that you must satisfy all the above conditions before acting. Writing each condition out has meaning. These are all experience-accumulated safety-margin conditions, not something written casually.

Tomorrow’s strategy:
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Today’s market outlook analysis (April 1):**
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I. Positioning the sentiment cycle**

Today’s market opened higher on external positive news and produced a contraction-volume broad-based uptrend. However, short-term market sentiment is severely diverged from the index. The Shanghai Composite closed at 3948.55 points, up 1.46%; the Shenzhen Component rose 1.70%; and the ChiNext rose 1.96%. Total turnover on both exchanges was 2.02 trillion RMB, slightly higher than yesterday by about 20 billion RMB. Nearly 4,200 stocks rose across the whole market; there were 56 stocks hitting limit-up; and 6 stocks hitting limit-down.

The core sentiment indicators show the market is in “index repair during the ebbing phase”:

Index prosperity, sentiment frozen: The market’s advance/decline ratio was above 5:1, but the consecutive-limit-up upgrade rate was only 12.5% (on the previous trading day there were 8 consecutive-limit-up stocks, and only 1 upgraded), and the total number of consecutive-limit-up stocks dropped sharply to 5.

Capital rotation between high and low: The main funds flowed out from the power and rail-transit sectors that were strong yesterday, and flowed heavily into innovation drugs, AI compute/CPO, and semiconductors, etc. The power sector became one of the few sectors that were down.

Cycle judgment: After yesterday’s panic selling and sharp decline, today used external positive news for a technical rebound at the index level. But the height of consecutive limit-ups was capped at 4 boards, there was a gap in mid-cap stocks, and most of yesterday’s strong stocks mostly made up for losses. This indicates short-term speculative sentiment is still in the ebbing phase. Currently it’s a chaotic stage of “the old cycle’s ebbing not finished, the early test period of the new cycle.” The money-making effect is concentrated in trend-based institutional directions (like pharma), not consecutive-limit-up relay plays.

II. Analysis of the consecutive-limit-up ladders and the core main theme

Consecutive-limit-up ladder (overall height capped at 4 boards; structural gaps)

Today the total number of consecutive-limit-up stocks was 5, and the upgrade rate to the next board was 12.5% (excluding ST stocks).

4 boards (the market’s overall main dragon):

Tianjin Pharmaceutical (津药药业) (600488): Chemical pharmaceuticals + innovative drugs. The market’s only space-height stock. With pharma exploding, it advanced to 4 boards and became a “grouping” target among weakness.

3 boards: 0 (clear gap/absence).

2 boards (4 stocks, dispersed trial runs):

Tongda Shares (通达股份) (002560): Electrical equipment.

Kailaiying (凯莱英) (002821): Biopharmaceuticals (CXO). The pharma sector’s follow-through height.

Xinghui Chemical Materials (星辉环材) (300834): Chemical raw materials.

Xinzhonggang (新中港) (605162): Power.

High-level trend core:

Aorui De (奥瑞德) (600666): 11 days and 6 boards. A trend leader in the compute leasing concept.

Mingpu Optoelectronics (铭普光磁) (002902): 6 days and 3 boards. A trend core in the CPO concept.

Core observation: The market’s consecutive-limit-up height is maintained by Tianjin Pharmaceutical (4 boards), but the ladder structure is severely fractured (no 3-board stocks between 4 boards and 2 boards). Also, the 2-board stocks are spread across different industries, showing that during the ebbing phase, capital avoids mid-cap stocks: either they cling to the highest board, or they test new directions at low levels. It hasn’t formed a unified force.

Market main-theme analysis (pharma stands alone; compute rebound; old main theme in ebbing)

Strongest main theme: Pharma (innovative drugs/CXO)

Driver: Easing expectations around innovative drug医保 negotiations policy; industry valuation repair; and positive expectations for first-quarter earnings growth.

Performance: A pharma breakout surge with limit-up stampedes—more than 20 stocks hit limit-up or rose over 10%. The leader Tianjin Pharmaceutical (4 boards) opened up the space. Kailaiying (2 boards) followed. Many stocks such as Ruizhi Pharma (睿智医药) and Guangshengtang (广生堂) hit 20CM limit-ups. The ladder structure was 4/2/first boards, and capital involvement was obvious.

Secondary main theme: AI compute/CPO/optical communications

Driver: TSMC silicon photonics platform COUP E is expected to enter mass production this year, and CPO is in the final countdown to industrialization; and stimulus from Zhipu API usage growth and pricing increase news.

Performance: Mingpu Guangci (6 days 3 boards) and Zhilifang (智立方) (20CM limit-up) led the move, and heavyweights like TAI FOO communications (天孚通信) and INJI Asure (中际旭创) rallied sharply. This falls under a sector rebound after being oversold.

Rotational sub-lines:

Compute leasing: Aorui De (11 days 6 boards) is repeatedly active.

Ebbing-direction:

Power: The sector collectively fell. Guangxi Energy hit limit-down, and Huadian Energy, JinKong Power (晋控电力), etc. also dropped hard.

Rail-transit equipment: Open strong then fade—Shenzhou High-Speed Rail炸板 and fell back; Dajia Tielian (交大铁发) also fell sharply.

Conclusion: The market main theme switched to “pharma,” and it formed a rebound resonance with “AI compute.” Meanwhile, the power and rail-transit main themes that were strong yesterday saw an across-the-board ebbing, and capital made a clear rotation from high to low.

III. Key observation anchors (tomorrow’s sentiment test stone)

Tomorrow is a critical day to test the quality of this “repair during the ebbing phase.” Keep an eye on three major anchors:

Anchor one: The sustainability of the pharma main theme

Observe targets: Tianjin Pharmaceutical (space dragon), Kailaiying (follow-through height), and first-board assists in the pharma sector.

Observation logic: The pharma sector hit a peak today, and it will inevitably split tomorrow. The degree of that split determines whether it’s a transitional theme or a new-cycle main line.

Key signals:

Strong signals: Tianjin Pharmaceutical strongly upgrades to 5 boards (breaking the 4-board cap), Kailaiying upgrades to 3 boards, and the sector has new first-board assist.

Weak signals: Tianjin Pharmaceutical breaks its board or opens sharply lower; pharma sector opens strong then turns weak and shows multiple board-breaks. This predicts a one-day wonder.

Anchor two: Market overall volume and the “losing money effect”

Observe targets: total turnover on both exchanges, number of stocks hitting limit-down, and yesterday’s limit-up stock performance.

Observation logic: A contraction-volume broad uptrend can’t be sustained; you need to check whether volume expands and whether the losing-money effect is converging.

Key signals: Turnover must stay above 2 trillion RMB; the number of limit-down stocks must drop to single digits; yesterday’s limit-down stocks (like Guangxi Energy) can’t keep hitting consecutive limit-downs.

Anchor three: Whether the old main theme stops falling and whether new directions are being tested

Observe targets: power sector (Huadian Energy), rail-transit sector (Shenzhou High-Speed Rail), and 2-board upgrade stocks (Tongda Shares, Xinghui Chemical Materials, etc.).

Observation logic: The old main theme stopping its decline is the premise for sentiment stabilization; which 2-board stocks can upgrade to 3 boards may point to the new trial direction.

Key signals: Core stocks in the power and rail-transit sectors stop falling and turn red and stable; among the 2-board stocks, there are individual stocks showing strong upgrades to 3 boards.

IV. Tomorrow’s strategy and risk-control plan

Core buy/sell strategy

(1) Market overall dragon: Tianjin Pharmaceutical (600488)

Positioning: The market’s only space board (4 boards), and the pharma sector’s sentiment leader.

Tomorrow’s sell points (if already holding):

Specific actions: If within 15 minutes after the open you can’t strongly cap the board, or after capping it you explode into a board-break and the intraday trend lacks strength to re-cap, immediately clear out the position.

Tomorrow’s buy points** (only for confirming via board-hitting with an extremely small position; best to mainly wait and observe)**:

Market conditions: Number of limit-down stocks at the open is fewer than 5; no panic sentiment.

Sector conditions: In the pharma sector, at least 2 stocks open with fast limit-ups (non-ST), forming sector-effect support.

Individual stock conditions:

Bidding: Opens high by +7% or more, and the transaction amount is greater than 100 million RMB.(If it opens as a one-word limit-up, then give up; mainly observe)

Intraday: After the open, intraday strength is strong and the rally has force, with no long time spent trading below the waterline.

Price-volume core: It must go through sufficient turnover. The transaction amount at the instant of the limit-up should reach at least 70% of yesterday’s transaction amount (≥140 million RMB) to avoid the “head-fake” risk after acceleration.

(2) 2-board ladder upgrade race (Tongda Shares / Xinghui Chemical Materials)

Positioning: A height representative of potential trial direction in the new cycle.

Strategy: Only observe, don’t participate. In the ebbing phase, the failure rate for “2 to 3” is extremely high and the risk-reward ratio is poor. Wait until one of them successfully upgrades to 3 boards and leads to sector-effect support; then consider trading on the next day.

V. Risk-control discipline (especially important in the ebbing phase)

Conditions to be flat (if any is satisfied, stay flat and observe):

Tianjin Pharmaceutical bidding gets “killed by cancellation buttons” (low opens below -5%).

The number of limit-down stocks at the open exceeds 10.

Pharma sector opens with no limit-up assists at all.

Understanding the stock market is also a complete journey from seeking outward exploration to inward cultivation, ultimately seeing the relationship between “the momentum (勢), the self (我), and the Dao (道).” Below are five progressive stages of enlightenment.

First stage: Seeing gains and losses, greed and fear being born—“Gains and losses are common; greed and fear tangle and compete in secret”

State: New to the market, your eyes are entirely on the K-line red/green and the floating profit/loss in your account. When it rises, you’re狂喜; when it falls, you panic. Your emotions are completely driven by the market. Chasing and cutting—both are driven by the two words “greed and fear.”

Mindset: At this point, you are a slave to emotion, and your behavior is a reflex to market volatility. “When luck goes, heroes can’t be free”—in a downward trend (“when luck goes”), any struggle may lead to even larger losses, and you deeply feel unfreedom.

Second stage: Know yourself, overcome the heart-thief—“If the mind doesn’t die, the Dao won’t be born; if desire doesn’t灭, the Dao won’t exist”

State: After repeated losses, you start reflecting, realizing the biggest enemy isn’t the market, but your own greed and fear. You begin learning to cut losses, restrain impulsiveness, and try to build trading discipline. This marks the beginning of “killing intent” (killing the impulsive heart) and “extinguishing excessive desire” (putting out over-greed).

Mindset: Shifting attention from external price action to examining inner desires. You understand that only by first mastering your heart can you talk about mastering the market. This is the foundation of enlightenment.

Third stage: Learn techniques, follow the trend—“Follow the heavens and respond to the times; momentum is fundamental. Those who swim against the current drown; those who flow with it live”

State: After your mindset becomes relatively calm, you systematically learn analysis methods and try to read the market’s language. Your core takeaway is understanding the power of “trend.” You stop trying to fight the tide and instead learn to identify “timing” and “the big trend.”

Mindset: You begin to feel “when the time comes, heaven and earth exert the same force”—when you correctly read and align with the trend, it feels like help everywhere and execution becomes smooth and natural. At the same time, you respect “when luck goes, heroes can’t be free,” and when you’re in a disadvantageous trend, you know to stop and observe instead of showing off strength.

Fourth stage: Integrate knowledge and practice, wait for the wind—“K-lines are like a chessboard viewed from outside; as the tide rises and falls, my mind stays calm”

State: Techniques and discipline internalize into instinct, and your mindset becomes stable. You can calmly treat the market as a chess game, and you are both the observer and the player in the duel. You clearly understand the cyclical nature of “force” and “luck,” and you don’t get restless over missed opportunities or waiting; you focus only on the kind of行情 that belongs to you and has “force” you can borrow.

Mindset: Reaching the state of “ups and downs ride the waves, floating and sinking match the city dust; the skies and clouds aren’t fixed, yet the mind stays still and the water flows deep.” You have firm principles internally and don’t drift along; you patiently wait for the moment when “heaven and earth exert the same force.”

Ultimate stage: Dao becomes natural, aligned with the market—“If desire doesn’t灭, the Dao doesn’t exist; if the time isn’t here, force won’t compete”

State: This is the realm of enlightenment in full. Your “ego-clinging” that fights the market is completely dissolved; desire becomes pure adherence to “the Dao” (market laws). Trading requires no forcing—when it’s time to enter, you enter; when it’s time to retreat, you retreat—natural like breathing. You deeply understand that “time” (opportunity) is the pivot of “luck” (potential energy). You don’t waste one soldier’s effort on a market situation you can’t control; you only exert full effort when “heaven and earth exert the same force.”

Mindset: You achieve transcendence from “hero” (relying on personal ability) to “sage” (following natural laws). The market, the self, and the law merge into one. This is “inaction, yet nothing is left undone” in the stock market: no reckless actions, so no defeat; follow the great trend, so success is achieved.

The complete enlightenment journey in the stock market is a cyclical upward process:

It begins with the greed and fear entanglement of “seeing mountains as mountains” (seeing gains and losses) → experiences self-struggle through “seeing mountains not as mountains” (overcoming the heart-thief) → arrives at “seeing water as water” by following the trend (learning trends) → ultimately returns to “seeing mountains still as mountains,” the naturalness of the Dao (aligned with the market).

Its core truth is exactly hidden in these two lines of poetry and the wisdom of Daoism: cultivating outwardly the art of “following the trend” (when the time comes, heaven and earth exert the same force), and cultivating inwardly the heart of “no-self” (if desire doesn’t灭, the Dao doesn’t exist). Only when your inner world becomes clear and free of obstruction can you reflect the “time” and “luck” of heaven and earth clearly, achieving true “freedom.”

I come to Taoxian to exchange ideas with more people. If you’re a newbie, you can gain experience from me that other creators don’t easily share. If you’re a pro, our mutual exchange can make each other stronger. Giving is mutual—your support (likes, tips, keep it up) can help my posts rank higher in visibility, so I can exchange with even more people and become stronger. The more knowledge I write for you, the better. I hope in the days ahead we can keep communicating with each other and learn even more together!
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Thanks to @张十三1688 for yesterday’s top-1 tip on the leaderboard.**
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All the gold powder has been reciprocally followed back; later we’ll exchange more and learn from each other, and I’ll also prioritize answering trading questions: @蜡笔小金金 @它山玉**
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Thank you for the support from these 16 friends yesterday: @张十三1688 @福星高曌 @筱慕 @冰山续集 @它山玉 @孙阿年 @不想销户 @蜡笔小金金 @杨奕宸 @baijie白杰 @香樟王 @梁国清 @丁自力 @YSY暴富 @老倒霉蛋咯 @丫O丫o for your tipping, and also for the encouragement from these 8 friends: @fans10000 @阳春三月6789 @蜡笔小金金 @不想销户 @Shmily96 @刘崇阳高端医美设备 @它山玉 @冰山续集.**

Disclaimer: The individual stocks and viewpoints mentioned here do not constitute investment advice. This is only my personal post-review record; any trading decisions are at your own risk for gains and losses. (The stock market involves risk; investment is需谨慎)