Galaxy Futures: The U.S. extends its energy sanctions on Iran by another 10 days; spot prices still expected to decline

The recent back-and-forth between Iran and the U.S. has continued, and the price movements of near- and far-month contracts have diverged. The EC near-month contract EC2604 follows the delivery logic: it has kept falling due to the impact of spot rate reductions. The far-month contracts, however, remain at high levels driven by geopolitical factors. In early April, on the OA Europe route, a new 18,000 TEU vessel was added on 4/12 that was previously operating on Middle East routes. Under the impact of geopolitical events, it is important to monitor how shipping companies redeploy their vessels afterward.

In terms of spot freight rates, spot markets remain in the off-season. The Gemini–Maersk WK15 weekly report is 2400, with HPL at 2100; the OA early April long-term average FAK is around 3000. For the PA Alliance, the first half of April is reported at 2500–2700, including ONE at 2500 for the first half of April; the FE4 route releases a promotional price of 2000; YML is around 2500 for the first half of April. MSC WK14 fell from 3040 to 2840, and the first week of April continued at 2840.

On the capacity side, on 2026/3/23, the weekly average capacities for Shanghai–Northern Europe’s 5 ports for 3/4/5 months were 240,3/262,0/291,4 thousand TEU, respectively. In the prior period (3/16), the weekly average capacities for March/April/May 2026 were 240,3/262,2/284,3 thousand TEU, respectively. Capacity for April continues to increase month over month. On the demand side, April is still in the off-season, so it is still necessary to pay attention to each shipping company’s cargo-booking situation.

The U.S. said its strikes on Iran’s energy facilities have been postponed again by 10 days, but the U.S. is still strengthening its military deployments in the Middle East, and risks are high around this weekend. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed. With geopolitical events continuing to play out, attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation developments and changes in fuel costs. (Galaxy Futures)