CITIC Securities: Electricity consumption growth returns to normal, structural changes reshape demand

MetaMuskRat · 2026-04-01T09:26:46+00:00

CITIC Securities research report indicates that in 2025, China's total social electricity consumption will increase by 5% year-on-year, with the growth rate slowing down compared to 2024. This is mainly due to the decline in the prosperity of traditional high-energy-consuming industries and the slowdown of emerging industries. However, secondary industry electricity use remains resilient, and tertiary industry electricity demand remains stable. It is expected that the electricity elasticity coefficient will rebound in the coming years.

MetaMuskRat

2026-04-01 09:26:46

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People’s Finance and Information, April 1—A research report from CITIC Securities said that in 2025, electricity consumption across China’s entire society will increase by 5% year over year, down 1.8 ppts compared with 2024. The GDP electricity elasticity coefficient has, for the first time since 2020, fallen back to 1.0. Structural factors are the main reason for the slowdown in electricity demand. The business outlook for traditional high-energy-consuming industries continues to trend downward. The growth rate of emerging high-end manufacturing has shown a phase of deceleration, but overall electricity use in the secondary industry still has strong resilience. Driven by the expansion of services for charging and swapping electric vehicles as well as the buildup of compute-power infrastructure, electricity demand growth in the tertiary industry remains basically stable. It is expected that the GDP electricity elasticity coefficient will rise again. The report expects that, in 2026 through 2028, the growth rates of total electricity consumption across the whole society will be 5.4%, 5.2%, and 5.0%, respectively.

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