Wen Chengkai: April 1st, gold is trapped in a triple tug-of-war. Can the non-farm payrolls data turn this into an upward trend?

After the gold triple consecutive gains, is the upward momentum still being released continuously? Under the strong pressure of $4,740, if a pullback occurs, how much room is there for the retracement? If the uptrend continues, where do the rebound targets above point next? ADP data impact: As a forward-looking indicator for Non-Farm Payrolls, how will today’s released ADP data—whether it is supportive or bearish—filter through? How strong will its continued impact on gold prices be? The current gold market is in the midst of a three-way core tug-of-war: short-term sentiment-driven rebounds, mid-term inflation pressure suppressing, and long-term fundamentals still bullish. Although the gold selloff in March recorded the largest drop in the same period, it also fully released the valuation pressure from earlier. From the core logic, the path of the price action will become clearly differentiated:
　　Bullish scenario: If meaningful progress is reached in the Iran-U.S. negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, a decline in oil prices will quickly ease inflation expectations, market rate-cut expectations will heat up, and gold may continue its strong rebound; Bearish scenario: If geopolitical tensions escalate again, safe-haven buying may temporarily support gold prices, but the suppressing effect of the high-interest-rate environment will become increasingly obvious, and the struggle between bulls and bears may intensify volatility. No matter how events unfold, $4,100 has become the mid-term bottom that institutions generally recognize.

The Non-Farm Payroll employment report for March to be released this Friday will become the key variable that breaks the short-term balance and determines the direction of gold. At this stage, there is no need to overfocus on single-day gains; the key is to watch whether gold can truly undergo a qualitative shift from an “hedging instrument” into a “trend-following long asset.”
　　I. Market review and today’s key focus
　　Looking back at the recent price action, the market pace has been far beyond what some investors expected. I previously stated clearly that gold would test the 4,700–5,000 range; the current price has already climbed to around 4,720. It is only one step away from the $4,740 peak. The strength of the uptrend is stronger than what market hesitators expected. Based on the current market performance, the upward momentum of the daily triple consecutive gains has not been fully exhausted. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. However, high-level risks must be watched: before $4,740 is broken, do not chase too aggressively. It is also possible that a correction could happen at any time, and the pullback may point toward $4,620. Therefore, in terms of strategy, one should stick to the principle of “long-term bullish, short-term defensive against pullbacks”: Do not chase higher intraday blindly; instead, wait for stabilization around $4,620 before positioning for the next leg of the upward move. At the same time, it is necessary to anticipate the ADP data in advance: if the data is bullish, gold will test the $4,820 high point; if the data is bearish, focus should be on whether the $4,620 support can hold.

II. In-depth technical analysis: key breakout determines the direction
　　On the daily timeframe, gold overall still maintains a high-level range-bound structure. Around $4,800, prices have met resistance multiple times, forming a clear sell-pressure band, suggesting that above-market funds have a strong willingness to exit. Below, $4,500 constitutes a key support zone; after multiple pullbacks, prices have stabilized there. The current price is inside the trading range, and a directional trend has not been fully established yet. Momentum indicators show that the rebound strength is limited: although MACD has completed an initial repair, it lacks a continuous volume-expansion signal, implying that bullish power is currently insufficient to push a full trend reversal. RSI stays in a neutral range and has not entered an extreme bullish or bearish state, confirming that the market is in a range-bound game rather than a one-way trend.
　　On the 4-hour chart, a standard rebound-repair structure is forming. The price gradually lifts along short-term moving averages, but there is no strong breakout momentum, and the upward pace appears slightly lackluster. MACD oscillates repeatedly near the zero line, and the divergence between bulls and bears is significant. RSI is in the 50–60 slightly-bullish zone, but it has not broken through the strong-threshold level, indicating that bullish sentiment has the upper hand, but lacks absolute dominance. If it cannot break through the strong resistance at $4,800, gold may return to range-bound weakness and fall again, retesting the key support at $4,500. If it breaks down, it will trigger a phase of correction. If, with fundamental support (geopolitics, Non-Farm Payrolls) successfully, it breaks above $4,800 resistance, the trend reversal can be confirmed and subsequent upside space will be fully opened, with targets looking toward $5,000.

III. Putting it all together
　　Gold is currently in a tug-of-war period of the “three-layer logic”: the $4,100 bottom is solid, the short-term rebound is still intact and the long-term bullish tone remains, but risks of a correction from high-level consolidation must be kept in mind. Wen Chengkai suggests that medium- to long-term holders can continue to hold long positions bought near the $4,400 low, still looking for the 4,800–5,000 range, and remain patient for the trend to be realized. For short-term traders: avoid chasing high above $4,740 intraday, and focus on whether there are stabilization signals at the $4,620 support to go long in line with the trend. If bearish ADP data leads to a break below $4,620, operations should be temporarily paused and wait for opportunities around $4,500. If bullish ADP data breaks above $4,740, follow through in line with the move to target $4,820 or $4,950.