I just realized that many of you still don’t fully understand token unlock – a super important factor that directly affects the price of the coins you’re holding. Today, I’ll share my experience on how to monitor and leverage opportunities from these events.

You may have heard of this concept before, but token unlock actually refers to the process of releasing locked (vesting) tokens into circulation. Each project has a specific unlock schedule when launched. These tokens can belong to the development team, VC investors, advisors, or the community.

Why lock tokens from the beginning? It’s to control supply and prevent big players from dumping immediately, which could cause the price to crash. It also helps build trust – showing that the project is committed long-term rather than just pump and dump.

Honestly, token unlocks have a very strong impact on market prices. When a large amount of tokens are unlocked at once, early holders often sell to take profits, creating huge selling pressure. If there isn’t enough buying power to absorb it, the price will plummet.

I’ve noticed three main factors that determine price movements around unlock times:

First is market psychology. Investors often sell before the unlock happens – they fear being caught in a dump, so they proactively exit, causing a quick price drop.

Second is the scale of the unlock. If the amount of tokens unlocked makes up a high percentage of the circulating supply, the impact can be severe. Projects with poor tokenomics are more prone to price crashes.

Third is the recipient of the tokens. If it’s the team or VC (those with large profits), they will sell. But if it’s for the community (airdrop, staking rewards), the market usually reacts more positively.

Let me give a real example for better understanding. TRUMP coin – do you remember? In April 2025, there was a 40 million token unlock, accounting for 20% of the circulating supply. At that time, the price ranged from $7.77 to $8.63, with a trading volume of about $736 million. The market was worried about selling pressure, but then the price recovered strongly. Currently, TRUMP is at $3.02, a significant change from that time.

Another example is APT. I tracked three unlock events and noticed an interesting pattern: the price usually hits a local bottom a few days before the unlock, then gradually rises and peaks right at the unlock moment. This creates a false sense of positivity. But the third time was interrupted because Bitcoin crashed. Now, APT is at $0.91. Without Bitcoin’s volatility, APT might repeat the pattern of rising then dumping.

Now, I’ll guide you on how to monitor token unlocks so you’re not caught off guard. The first tool is Tokenomist – an intuitive interface that provides detailed unlock schedules, filterable by week, month, or upcoming large unlocks.

The second tool is DeFiLlama – a dashboard aggregating projects with upcoming vesting, filterable by date and amount.

Additionally, I recommend following the projects directly on X, Discord, Medium. Most will give prior notices, even hold AMAs to explain their plans.

Most importantly, don’t assume every token unlock is a bearish signal. That’s not true. You need to analyze more deeply: who will receive the tokens? Do they have an incentive to sell? Are there any news accompanying the event? These are questions you should answer before making decisions.

In reality, token unlocks are both risks and opportunities. If you know how to read them, you can leverage them. Combine monitoring unlock schedules with technical analysis and news to make smarter decisions. Wishing you successful trading, especially those who rely on token unlocks to profit.