JPMorgan: Global central bank rate hike expectations are "unreasonable"

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-04-01T04:16:37+00:00

JPMorgan believes that market expectations for global central bank rate hikes may be "unreasonable," as conflicts in the Middle East and high energy prices could suppress economic growth, making it difficult for central banks to raise interest rates. If the conflict persists, central banks might ignore rising inflation; conversely, if the situation improves, short-term inflation does not necessarily lead to rate hikes.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-04-01 04:16:37

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【JPMorgan: “Unreasonable” rate-hike expectations from global central banks】China Finance Network, March 20—After tensions in the Middle East escalated, market expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy rate as of December 2026 were raised by more than 55 basis points, while traders also sharply lowered their expectations for Fed rate cuts. In its latest research note, JPMorgan’s equity strategy team believes that “these expectations may not be reasonable.” If the conflict continues to escalate alongside high energy prices, it will suppress economic growth, which may force central banks to overlook the spike in inflation. If the conflict ultimately triggers an economic recession, the likelihood of central banks raising rates is next to nil; and if the situation in the conflict eases, a short-term surge in inflation is also unlikely to justify rate hikes by central banks.

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