China-France route, currently "descending"

Ask AI · How can Chinese airlines take the lead in the China–France air travel market?

“Direct flight from Lyon to Shanghai—coming soon?”

This piece of information, repeatedly circulated among aviation enthusiasts, has been reignited again recently—during the new spring schedule, China Eastern will include Lyon, France, in a “feasibility study.”

If a route hasn’t even launched yet, why has it generated so much attention?

Some people think it’s convenient—no transfers, saving at least 4 hours; others are puzzled—compared with Paris, what exactly is worth going to in Lyon?

Industry insiders point out that traffic rights and approvals are still uncertain. But even more worth watching is the change in the China–France aviation market behind this route.

Xiamen, Nanjing, Chongqing, Xi’an, and other Chinese second-tier cities have already been rolling out direct flights to Paris. Meanwhile, the Shanghai–Marseille route is rapidly scaling up.

Data source: Flight Butler

A new trend is emerging: China–France routes are no longer focused solely on Paris.

For a long time, Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport has almost monopolized all China–France air connections. High-frequency flights between Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou and Paris form the market’s basic foundation.

But this “single-point concentration” structure is being broken. In addition to the Pudong–Marseille nonstop route opened by Shanghai Airlines under China Eastern in 2024, a Lyon route may also be opened next.

According to the latest Flight Butler data, the share of flight volume by Chinese carriers on China–France routes has reached 77.02%, while the share for French carriers is 22.98%.

Six Chinese carriers, including China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern, have already taken a dominant position on the capacity side through multi-point deployment. Among them, China Eastern and Air China both hold 29.83%, tying for first place.

Data source: Flight Butler

This means that in the French market, competition among Chinese carriers has shifted from “filling gaps” to “leading.”

Paris is still an absolute hub. But as passenger flows keep pouring in from China’s first-tier and core second-tier cities, its carrying capacity is approaching the limit.

Growth is starting to look for new exits. According to aviation flow intelligence, in the first half of 2025, across six routes from first-tier hubs—Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, and Guangzhou—to France, passenger volume reached 969,400 trips, up 6.63% year over year.

Among them, the Shanghai routes grew 14.5%, the Hong Kong routes grew 1.3%, the Taipei routes grew 2.9%, the Guangzhou routes grew 29.4%, and the Beijing routes saw negative growth, down 6.4% year over year.

For second-tier hubs—Xiamen, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Xi’an, and Chengdu—across five routes to France, passenger volume in the first half totaled 102,000 trips, up 79.7% year over year, with an average load factor of 83.8%.

The round-trip flight volume on the Shanghai–Marseille route reached 150 flights—almost matching Xiamen–Paris (156 flights)—and surpassing the frequency of Shenzhen’s nonstop flights to Paris.

A route to France’s third-largest city is starting to approach the traffic scale of Paris.

It can be seen that French cities outside Paris have begun to demonstrate capacity close to that of first-tier destinations. Against this backdrop, Lyon’s significance has been amplified again.

Compared with Paris—the world’s top-tier tourism city—and Marseille, the gateway French seaport, Lyon also has its own unique features: it is not only an important inland hub, but also a key French center for industry and research, with stable demand for business travel and a high-value passenger segment.

This kind of passenger mix of “high frequency + rigid demand” is exactly what airlines value most in the current revenue environment.

But the reality is that this route still hasn’t been launched.

One key constraint lies on the European carriers’ side.

Affected by cost pressure brought on by detours around Russian airspace, Air France overall is still in a recovery phase, and flight volume remains significantly below the level of 2019.

Data source: Flight Butler

Strategically, Air France is more inclined to consolidate the Paris hub than to expand to more new destinations.

On the other side, it’s the proactive expansion by Chinese carriers. China Eastern’s flight volume grew 8% year over year, and China Southern has basically recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

By continuously deploying capacity into second-tier markets, Chinese carriers are gradually diverting the transit passenger flows that were previously concentrated in Paris.

The 98.8% load factor on the Xiamen–Paris route is the most direct reflection of this trend.

When second-tier hubs can consistently deliver results close to full capacity, nonstop flights to France’s second-tier cities are also being amplified accordingly.

The issue with Lyon is shifting from whether there is demand to when it will be validated.

However, opening a route is never the end point.

Does Lyon have stable demand to support long-term widebody aircraft operations? How can you avoid cyclical volatility where the route hits its peak immediately after launch? Between business and tourism, can a sustainable passenger demand structure be formed?

These questions determine whether a route can move from being launched to becoming stable.

The downscaling of China–France routes has already begun.

Next, it’s not just that more cities are being connected—it’s which cities can stay.