Longs or Shorts? Who Is Leading the $65,000 Battle

Long-term holders are starting to "surrender." Is this a bottom signal?

As Bitcoin hovers within a narrow range around $67,000-$68,000, a key on-chain metric has caught market attention: the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of long-term holders recently fell below 1.0. This indicates that the most reluctant sellers, experienced through multiple bull and bear cycles, are beginning to sell at a loss.

CryptoQuant analyst pointed out that when long-term holders start selling at a loss, it is often interpreted as "surrender" or "early panic" behavior. Historical experience shows that when these most steadfast holders begin to cut their positions, it usually signals that the market is approaching a bottom — selling pressure is gradually depleting.

But does this mean $65,000 can hold? The answer is not simple.

Bull vs Bear Battle: Institutional Entry vs Technical Suppression

The bulls are gathering strength. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes Bitcoin may have already bottomed out, reaffirming a target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026. Institutional funds are indeed flowing back — Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, and Strategy firm controls at least 3.6% of circulating Bitcoin supply. Morgan Stanley is also preparing a spot BTC ETF, which will further lower the barrier for institutional entry.

However, the bears have strong reasons as well. Technically, for Bitcoin to reverse its downtrend, it must break above the $68,800 level near the 50-day moving average. Currently, this moving average continues to suppress rebounds, with all major moving averages positioned above the current price, forming multiple resistance levels. Analysts note that as long as the price cannot reclaim the 50-day MA, downside risk remains.

Liquidity distribution charts show that the $68,500-$70,000 range is packed with a large amount of short liquidity. This means that even if the price rebounds to this level, it may encounter strong selling pressure. And once it breaks below $65,000, the next test target will be $60,000.

Next Key Variables

In the coming week, several factors will determine whether $65,000 can hold: the geopolitical situation after the expiration of Trump’s Iran ceasefire order on April 6, whether Bitcoin can break through the 50-day moving average, and whether institutional inflows can continue. $BTC ‌

Analysts generally believe that the market is in a "consolidation rather than trend" phase. $65,000 is not only a technical support level but also a psychological battleground for bulls and bears — holding it could lead to a rebound; losing it, the $60,000 defense battle will soon begin. #BTC能否守住6.5萬美元？