Has the significant decline started?

Trump extends by 10 days his pledge not to attack Iran’s energy facilities, saying the extension was made at Iran’s request. But afterwards, a peace-negotiation mediator said Iran did not request an extension of the talks.

1）Now the market is in a very awkward state: every message could be true, or it could be false.

The U.S. says: talks

Iran says: no talks

The media says: maybe talks

In this situation, the market is no longer trading information—it’s trading uncertainty itself.

2）The news briefly sent Brent crude to fall below $100 (at the lowest to $97), but then it quickly rebounded back to $100.

Brent crude’s “$100” has become a “lifeline.”

If oil prices are above $100, the risk-off mode

If oil prices are below $100, risk-on mode eases

In the medium term, there’s only one key variable—the question of whether oil prices can get back below $100, which is more important than interest rates.

3）The Nasdaq index is down more than 10% from its high, entering a pullback zone, and the S&P 500 index may follow suit.

Now analysts are watching the “6475” level (it closed at 6477 points on Thursday). There are large institutions (JPM)’s protective positions here, and short-term funds (0DTE) for defense—essentially the market’s “last layer of cushioning.” If this level holds, the market can still churn or even rebound; if it breaks, it will very likely go straight to the 6000 level.

What’s interesting is that today the market is testing both of these levels at the same time: oil’s $100 level and the S&P 500 index’s 6475 level. Either oil holds steadily above $100 and the S&P 500 index breaks below 6475. Or oil breaks below $100 while the S&P 500 index holds 6475.

The problem now isn’t that the market is falling, but that—the stock market hasn’t fully believed the oil market yet. If the oil market is right, then the stock market hasn’t even had time to decline. (Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle)