The Strait of Hormuz blockage pushes Brent crude oil prices soaring; Brent Q1 surged over 70%, marking the largest quarterly increase in 36 years.

Against the backdrop of the U.S.-Iran conflict continuing for more than a month and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have surged sharply and reached a peak level for the period, with tensions in the energy market continuing to worsen.

In the past month, the U.S. carried out more than 11,000 strikes against Iran. Coupled with ongoing restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor, international oil prices have jumped significantly in March. ZhiTong Finance APP learned from data that the international benchmark for crude oil—the Brent crude oil futures price—rose cumulatively by about 43% in March, to $103.97 per barrel, marking the largest single-month gain since May 2020; the cumulative gain for the first quarter reached 71%, the largest quarterly increase since 1990.

For U.S. benchmark oil prices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 51% in March; its cumulative gain for the first quarter of 2026 is up 77%, also setting the largest increase since the early stage of the 2020 pandemic. In that year, global economic shutdowns caused sharp swings in supply and demand, while sanctions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the summer of 2022 also pushed oil prices higher substantially.

On the diplomatic front, Iran has denied that it has held formal negotiations with the United States. Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragchi said that while both sides have exchanged information, they have not entered into a formal negotiation phase; Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson also stressed that in the past 31 days, “there have been no negotiations with the United States.” However, there are reports that intermediaries, including Pakistan, have submitted proposals and pushed for dialogue.

On the military front, U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said that the coming few days will be a key turning point; Iran still has the capability to launch missiles and drones, but the frequency of attacks has declined recently.

Rising energy prices have quickly flowed through to end-user consumption. Data show that the average gasoline price in the United States has risen to $4.02 per gallon, up more than $1 from February—its highest level since the summer of 2022—further intensifying pressure on household living costs.

Although market reports have repeatedly suggested that the conflict may be nearing its end, leaders of several countries—including Trump—have not clearly provided a timeline. On social media, Trump criticized allies such as the United Kingdom for not taking part in the U.S.-led actions, and said that the relevant countries either buy oil from the United States or go to the Strait of Hormuz to “acquire resources on their own.”

At the same time, the EU is attempting to ease the situation. European Council President Antonio Costa said he has communicated with the President of Iran about cooling tensions, showing that diplomatic efforts are still moving forward.

The market generally believes that the shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz remain a key variable determining the direction of oil prices. Iran’s parliament has approved a plan to impose transit fees on vessels passing through the waterway; even if the war ends, this measure may still keep oil prices elevated.

Data show that before the war, about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas transport needed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, most of which flows to Asian refineries. At present, some Asian countries have taken energy-saving measures to cope with supply pressure, including shortening the workweek and limiting energy use.