Goldman Sachs believes that after the sell-off, gold will still rise to $5,400.

Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on gold, predicting that despite a recent pullback, the gold price is still expected to reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year. As this view was issued, gold came under selling pressure amid stock market weakness and expectations of tighter monetary policy, falling about 17% from its peak during the Iran war.

Spot gold is currently trading near $4,600 per ounce. Analysts say this round of price revaluation has “already seen an overcorrection, reflecting the market’s excessive focus on the inflation pass-through effect while ignoring growth headwinds,” and that historical experience suggests concerns about growth will ultimately take the lead.

The bullish case rests on the market still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, and on the assumption that, absent additional private-sector investment, central banks will continue to buy gold at a pace of about 60 tons per month. Goldman Sachs acknowledges there are short-term risks, noting that if energy supply shocks intensify, the tactical downside room for gold could be as low as $3,800. On the upside, analysts point out that the Iran conflict could accelerate the diversion of funds away from traditional Western assets into other allocations, a scenario that would provide support for a further rebound.

 Open a futures account on Sina’s partner platform—safe, fast, and reliable

Endless information, precise analysis—only on the Sina Finance APP

Editor in charge: Zhang Jun SF065