March cold river crossing, April new willow colors

The Wind of March, the Road of April[Taoguba]
In March, the stock market was like a late-spring cold snap.
The index fell, individual stocks declined, and accounts quietly shrank. Someone said the problem isn’t with swimming skills, but with choosing a cesspit and still doing breaststroke. Coarse as it sounds, the reasoning is sound—this March was indeed a hellish challenge.
But looking back, when the whole world is falling, we still stand out as one of the relatively resilient ones. The central bank said that money wouldn’t be tight, and the market needs stability. High-speed rail is operational, rockets are launched, and locomotives even won championships—when prices fall too much, it ultimately becomes a positive signal.
April has arrived. With Qingming approaching, according to past customs, the market won’t let people happily pay respects to ancestors. So let’s wait a bit—one shouldn’t become angry and launch an offensive. Risk control is a safety net; maintaining stability is more important than rushing into action.
The wind of March has passed; the road of April is slowly unfolding.
【Market Review】

1. Review of March
   Overall, March was a painful transition period between new and old main themes.
   Earlier hot topics like AI and energy entered a retreat phase, with capital clearly shifting toward undervalued, high-dividend sectors—bank stocks are a typical example.
   Some other themes also emerged, such as high-speed rail and commercial space, but mostly driven by specific events. These sectors are small and couldn’t lift overall sentiment.
   At the index level, the Shanghai Composite was still repeatedly testing its bottom, while the ChiNext Index approached a critical support level. The overall profit-making effect was poor, especially in the latter part of the month, when the loss effect became more pronounced.
2. Outlook for April
   Entering April, several variables need close attention:
   First, earnings reports will be densely released, and earnings disappointments are inevitable;
   Second, the Politburo meeting set the tone, affecting how policies will be implemented moving forward; and third, external factors, especially geopolitical and trade environment changes.
   These combined factors likely keep risk appetite suppressed. At this time, don’t think about rushing to recover losses—being too anxious increases the risk of trouble. Risk control is the top priority; protecting your principal is more important than anything else.
3. Opportunity directions
   It’s not to say there are no opportunities. The policy bottom remains, and the central bank is calling for “maintaining financial market stability,” with a friendly liquidity environment. The key is to see when capital will form a new consensus.
   In terms of sectors, three lines are worth tracking:
   First, “hard technology breakthroughs,” such as commercial space and high-end equipment, supported by industry trends;
   Second, dividend assets like banks and power companies, which still have value in a low-interest-rate environment;
   Third, inflation transmission, where some sub-sectors within cyclicals and large consumer categories may gradually emerge.
   But all these require time for validation; rushing is not advisable.
4. Long-term perspective
   From Zhang Xue’s locomotive winning the championship to the accelerated IPO pace of commercial space companies, it’s clear that China’s manufacturing industry is moving upward—from “can it be built” to “can it reach the top.” The capital market is aligned with this direction; supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrading is a clear function.
   No matter how much the market fluctuates in the short term, this long-term logic remains unchanged. For individuals, the key is to stay steady amid volatility and not be led astray by emotions.

【Final Words】
March is gone; all the good and bad are left behind.
Early April is Qingming, a season for quietness and patience.
The market has its own rhythm; it cannot be hurried or avoided. What we can do is safeguard our own principal and wait for the right moment.
When the spring breeze blows, it will always bring something.