A Look At Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) Valuation After New AI Data Center And Storage Alliances

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 16, 2026 at 7:10 AM GMT+9 4 min read

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Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) is back on investors’ radar after a framework agreement with Crusoe to deploy up to 25 MW of modular AI data centers in Texas, along with new partnerships tied to AI focused energy storage.

See our latest analysis for Energy Vault Holdings.

Despite the fresh AI focused agreements and recent financing moves, Energy Vault’s share price return has been weak in the near term. The 30 day share price return is 44.23% and the year to date share price return is 34.76%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 95.71% points to strong earlier momentum that has cooled recently.

If this AI infrastructure push has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist with our 34 AI infrastructure stocks. That list can help you spot other power and data center names linked to the same theme.

With the shares around $3.19, new AI related projects, a recent $140 million convertible bond and 1 year total return near 96%, you have to ask: is Energy Vault still mispriced or is future growth already baked in?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.5% Undervalued

Energy Vault Holdings last closed at $3.19, compared with a widely followed fair value estimate of $3.73, which frames how some analysts see the AI and storage story today.

The market appears to be pricing in significant recurring EBITDA growth over the next few years, driven by expectations that newly announced Asset Vault projects and a $300M preferred equity investment will unlock over $1 billion in CapEx and rapidly scale up owned and operated storage assets; however, actual project execution and timely commercialization may face delays or operational risks, which could impact future revenue and ultimately leave earnings below current optimistic projections.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that optimism and caution in the same breath? Revenue compounding, margin shifts, share count changes, and one key profit metric tie this fair value together.

According to the most followed narrative, analysts are building their fair value using a discount rate of 9.41% and an outlook where revenue grows quickly while profitability improves from current loss making levels. Those assumptions include a path to positive earnings several years out, combined with a future earnings multiple below what the US Electrical industry uses on average.

The same narrative also points out that analyst price targets have moved over time. Earlier work referenced a consensus target of $1.10, with individual targets between $0.50 and $1.70 and a view that the market price then was ahead of those numbers. The newer fair value of $3.73 and the current share price of $3.19 show how changing assumptions about revenue, margins and discount rates can materially shift what different models call “fair.”

Story Continues  

Importantly, the story is not only about growth. The narrative spends time on the role of investment tax credits, the $300 million preferred equity support for the Asset Vault platform, and expectations that long term service contracts and an own and operate model could smooth cash flows. At the same time, it flags that Energy Vault is still loss making today, is forecast by some analysts to remain unprofitable over the next three years, and carries higher risk funding, with liabilities entirely from external borrowing rather than customer deposits.

If you want to see all the assumptions behind that $3.73 number, including the projected revenue ramp, margin path, future P/E and discount rate in one place, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives.

Result: Fair Value of $3.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, the story could change quickly if project execution slips or if tax credit monetization and policy support around those US$40m in ITCs do not play out as expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Energy Vault Holdings narrative.

Another Take On Value: Sales Multiple Flashes Caution

The fair value narrative presents Energy Vault as 14.5% undervalued, but the current P/S of 6.4x tells a different story. This level is far above both the US Electrical industry average of 2.6x and a fair ratio of 2.6x. This gap suggests meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools and the multiple moves closer to that fair ratio.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:NRGV P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own Energy Vault Holdings Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personal view on Energy Vault in a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Energy Vault Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NRGV.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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