Constellation Energy (CEG) Stock Falls After $3.9B Capex Plan and Buyback Raise

TLDR

• CEG dropped 2.2% in premarket after announcing $3.9B capex plan
• Buyback authorization raised to $5 billion
• 2026 adjusted EPS forecast of $11–$12, slightly below analyst consensus of $11.6
• Company projects 20%+ base EPS growth from 2026 to 2029
• Constellation Software separately purchased $12.3M in Sabre Corp (SABR) stock in February

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Constellation Energy, the country’s largest nuclear fleet operator, laid out an ambitious spending roadmap on Tuesday as it looks to capitalise on surging demand for clean electricity.

Constellation Energy Corporation, CEG

The Baltimore-based utility announced $3.9 billion in planned capital expenditure and lifted its share buyback program to $5 billion. The market wasn’t exactly impressed — the stock slid 2.2% in premarket trade.

The backdrop here matters. U.S. power demand hit a record high in 2025, driven by AI data center buildouts, cryptocurrency operations, and the ongoing electrification of homes and transport. Constellation is positioning itself to capture a large slice of that growth.

The company has already locked in more than 5,650 megawatts of long-term clean energy agreements, spanning nuclear, geothermal, and battery storage. That includes a 20-year deal with Meta to keep an Illinois reactor running, and a deal with Microsoft to restart the Pennsylvania plant formerly known as Three Mile Island.

In January, Constellation closed its $16.4 billion acquisition of Calpine, merging its nuclear assets with Calpine’s natural gas and geothermal portfolio. To satisfy regulators, it agreed in March to sell a package of PJM grid assets to LS Power for $5 billion.

Guidance Comes In Slightly Light

For 2026, Constellation forecast adjusted earnings per share of between $11 and $12. The midpoint of $11.50 sits just below the analyst consensus of $11.60, per LSEG data. That small miss may have contributed to the early weakness in the stock.

Looking further out, the company guided for base EPS growth of 20% or more annually from 2026 through 2029. That’s a bold growth profile for a utility, underpinned by its long-term power agreements and the Calpine integration.

Constellation Software Makes a Move on Sabre

In a separate development, Constellation Software (CSU) — no relation to Constellation Energy — disclosed a $12.3 million purchase of Sabre Corp (SABR) stock.

The transaction, filed Monday, shows Constellation Software and affiliates, including Constellation Canadian Holdings and Mark Miller, bought 10,634,702 Sabre shares on February 27 at a weighted average price of $1.1605 per share.

Following the purchase, Constellation Holdings directly owns 50,157,523 Sabre shares.

Sabre currently trades around $1.40, down more than 50% over the past year. Bernstein recently downgraded the stock to Market Perform, citing leverage concerns, with a price target of $1.50. Cantor Fitzgerald holds a Neutral rating after Sabre’s Q4 results came in ahead of estimates on both revenue and EBITDA.

Sabre’s board responded to Constellation Software’s growing stake by adopting a limited-duration shareholder rights plan, effective immediately and set to expire in one year.

Sabre also recently completed the full redemption of $91.6 million in senior secured notes due in 2027, and appointed Niklas Andréen as Chief Commercial Officer for Airline Tech.

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