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Just came across something pretty interesting about market cycles that deserves a closer look. There's this old framework called Benner's Economic Cycle Theory - developed by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer back in the 1870s - that maps out periods when to make money with surprising consistency.
So here's how it works. Benner broke down the market into three distinct periods when to make money, each with its own playbook:
First, you've got the panic years (roughly every 16-18 years). These are the years to stay cautious - 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019... and the theory suggests 2035 is next on the list. During these periods, financial crises tend to hit. Not the time to be aggressive.
Then there are the prosperity years (every 9-11 years or so). Think 1926, 1935, 1945, 1955... jumping to recent history: 2007, 2016, and here's the thing - we're looking at 2026 as a potential peak year according to this pattern. These are the periods when to make money by selling. Prices are high, sentiment is strong, and it's time to take profits.
Finally, the buying years (every 7-10 years). Low prices, opportunity knocking. Years like 1924, 1931, 1942... and notably, 2023 was flagged as one of these. The theory says hold through these down periods until the boom returns.
What's wild is the cyclical nature of it all. Buy during the hard times, hold through the cycle, sell when prices peak. It's almost mechanical in how it repeats. The framework suggests watching these three periods carefully - they're basically the map for when to make money in markets.
Now, 2026 being a potential selling year is interesting timing given where we are right now. Whether you believe in Benner's exact predictions or not, the underlying logic about cyclical market behavior is worth considering. The theory has been around for 150+ years for a reason - it resonates with how markets actually move.