Gold and cryptocurrencies resonate? Goldman Sachs' latest report reveals the medium-term outlook and risks for gold prices

Recent gold market action has shown clear selloff pressure. Prices at one point fell below a key psychological level, triggering widespread debate about whether the bull market is over. However, in its latest report, Goldman Sachs explicitly maintains a bullish stance, arguing that this round of pullback is more of a tactical correction than a trend reversal.

From the timeline, the main driver behind the gold price’s short-term decline is concern about energy supply shocks and expectations of tighter liquidity. But the mid-term drivers—central bank gold buying and rate-cut expectations—have not changed materially. This suggests that current volatility still falls within the market’s repricing of macro variables, rather than a collapse of the underlying logic.

How do central bank gold buying and rate-cut expectations form a dual driver?

Goldman Sachs’ analysis points out that continued central bank gold buying is a unique support factor for this gold bull market. Since 2022, the global annual gold buying by central banks has remained above 1,000 tons, significantly higher than the average over the prior decade. The report further expects that, absent a significant increase in purchases by the private sector, official-sector gold buying momentum will accelerate again, with monthly average gold purchases likely returning to around 60 tons. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to carry out two rate cuts in 2026, which would depress real interest rates and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. The combined effect of these two forces provides a basis for gold prices to converge upward over the medium term.

Where do market mainstream views and key disagreements concentrate?

Current disagreements in how gold is priced are mainly reflected in two areas. First is the nature of short-term risk. Some views hold that energy supply shocks would trigger systemic disinflation pressure, thereby suppressing gold’s safe-haven demand. Goldman Sachs characterizes this as “tactical downside risk” and notes that if the shock worsens further, gold could test as low as $3,800, but it would not change the medium-term upward direction. Second is the stability of central bank behavior. The market once worried that some central banks might sell gold to intervene in their local currencies, but the report argues that Gulf countries are more likely to cut back on U.S. Treasuries rather than gold reserves—therefore, downward pressure from gold selling has been overestimated.

If energy shocks escalate, how would the risk structure for gold change?

Risk-simulation models show that the biggest downside risk gold faces comes from extreme scenarios triggered by energy supply shocks. If geopolitical conflicts cause energy prices to rise persistently, global manufacturing activity slows, and nominal interest rates are forced to stay high, gold may face phased liquidity-tightening pressure. In this scenario, gold prices could test support near $3,800. However, it’s important to note that this kind of scenario would be a temporary drag on gold. Once safe-haven demand regains dominance, central bank gold buying and the trend toward de-dollarization would quickly offset the downside pressure.

What does gold’s upside logic imply for the crypto asset market?

Gold and crypto assets overlap heavily in their macro narrative drivers. Both benefit from a repricing of fiat currency credit systems, increased demand for diversified institutional asset allocation, and heightened attention to “non-sovereign assets” amid geopolitical conflict. The Goldman Sachs report mentions the trend of “countries accelerating their divestment of traditional Western assets,” which is an important backdrop for structural support of crypto assets in this cycle. From an industry layout perspective, gold’s sustained strength will further reinforce the allocation logic for the “hard assets” category, indirectly benefiting digital assets with similar attributes. Gate market data shows that as of March 31, 2026, during the macro-expectations adjustment phase, mainstream crypto assets have still demonstrated relative resilience, and a structural division of labor with gold in terms of safe-haven attributes is beginning to take shape.

Over the next 12 months, what evolution path might gold follow?

Based on Goldman Sachs’ projection, gold over the next 12 months may follow an evolution path of “first choppy trading, then an upward move.” In the short term, fluctuations in energy prices and the Federal Reserve’s policy cadence will continue to dominate market sentiment, and gold may keep oscillating within the $3,800–$4,200 range. Entering the second half of 2026, as rate cuts take effect and central bank gold-buying accelerates, gold could gradually move toward a target of $5,400. The key assumptions behind this path are: the geopolitical conflict does not evolve into a global energy supply cutoff, and private investors gradually return to tools such as gold ETFs after rate cuts become clearly confirmed. If the private sector also increases purchases, upside room would open further.

What potential variables could weaken the current bullish logic?

From a risk-simulation perspective, the medium-term logic for gold faces three main sets of constraints. First, if U.S. inflation falls faster than expected, the space for rate cuts would be compressed. Real interest rates would stay high, weakening gold’s appeal. Second, if energy supply shocks evolve into a long-term structural increase in costs, global growth expectations would be revised down, and gold’s safe-haven function would be partially offset by liquidity tightness. Third, if central bank gold-buying pacing experiences a short-term reversal due to currency pressure, it would create significant disturbance to market confidence. Although Goldman Sachs believes the latter possibility is less likely, it still needs to be monitored as a risk factor.

Conclusion

Overall, this round of gold market correction has not undermined the core logic behind the medium-term upside. Structural support from central bank gold buying and the macro environment of rate-cut expectations together form the foundation for the continuation of the bull market. The market’s current disagreements are more focused on choosing a risk path in the short term, rather than denying the long-term direction. For investors, the key is to distinguish tactical volatility from trend turning points and to maintain structural attention to non-sovereign asset categories in asset allocation. The alignment in macro narratives between gold and crypto assets is reshaping the boundaries of traditional asset allocation.

FAQ

Q: What are the main reasons Goldman Sachs predicts gold will rise to $5,400?

A: The main reasons include continued central bank gold buying worldwide (expected monthly averages of 60 tons), the Federal Reserve still having two rate cuts in 2026, and accelerated diversification by countries amid geopolitical conflict.

Q: How low could gold potentially fall in the short term?

A: Goldman Sachs states that if energy supply shocks worsen, gold faces tactical downside risk and could drop to around $3,800.

Q: Will central banks sell gold to stabilize their domestic currencies?

A: The report believes Gulf countries are more inclined to intervene by reducing holdings of U.S. Treasuries, making it less likely that gold selling would become the primary tool.

Q: How would gold’s rise affect crypto assets?

A: Gold and crypto assets share common narratives across dimensions such as fiat credit repricing and asset diversification. Gold’s strength helps reinforce the market’s allocation logic for “non-sovereign assets.”