How was the conflict initiated? Trump was reported to have approved strikes on Iran after a phone call with Netanyahu

The war in the Gulf has entered its 25th day. Under the intense strikes by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian government has not only failed to collapse from within, but instead has strengthened its own positions. It has launched counterattacks against military targets of Israel and the United States around the Gulf region, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears to be temporarily solid as well. With oil prices rising and public-opinion approval ratings falling, signs of a split have emerged within the “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” camp. U.S. President Donald Trump is showing signs of backtracking.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 23 Trump said the United States had a “strong” dialogue with Iran, that the dialogue was “perfect,” and that protocol points have been formed. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that over the past few days, Iran had received messages from some friendly countries regarding the United States’ request to end the war through negotiations, and that Iran had responded appropriately according to its principles and positions, without holding any negotiations with the United States. That day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a video address, said that Israel will “continue airstrikes against Iran and Lebanon.”

As the fighting drags on, reports have revealed that at the end of February, after a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump ultimately ordered action against Iran, and incorrect intelligence from Israel’s external intelligence agency Mossad may be one of the main reasons that led Trump to misjudge the situation.

On February 28, 2026, local time, in Los Angeles, California, Iran community members and supporters held a celebration event. A man waved a photo of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On that day, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday morning. Visual China Photo

Why Trump greenlit the launch of a military strike

In an exclusive report on the 23rd, Reuters said that 48 hours before the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, Netanyahu and Trump had a phone call to discuss the reasons and plans for the war they were about to launch.

Earlier that week, both had learned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and his key aides were scheduled to meet on the morning of February 28 at their Supreme Leader office in Tehran. The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said that Netanyahu argued during the call for using this opportunity to assassinate Khamenei.

People familiar with the matter said that at the time of this call, Trump had already approved the U.S. military strikes against Iran, but had not yet determined when or under what circumstances the U.S. should intervene in the conflict. Israel’s Defense Minister Katz told Israel’s N12 News on the 5th that the Israeli side initially believed that Israel’s armed forces would carry out the military strikes against Iran on their own.

Reuters analysis said that while it was impossible to determine what effect Netanyahu’s arguments had on Trump’s decision, the call effectively amounted to Netanyahu’s “final statement” to Trump. Multiple people familiar with the matter said that the call and the intelligence about Khamenei’s appearance were the catalysts for Trump’s order on February 27 to initiate military strikes against Iran.

In addition, Israel provided the United States with incorrect intelligence about Iran’s military capabilities, which may also have been an important reason that prompted Trump to launch military strikes against Iran. Two anonymous Israeli officials said that during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington in February, he briefed Trump on the danger of Iran’s ballistic missile program, claiming that Iran would obtain the capability to strike the U.S. homeland.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump won support from a large number of U.S. voters with the slogan “America First” and his promise to oppose starting wars overseas. Trump’s ultimate decision to launch military strikes against Iran has already triggered dissatisfaction among supporters of the right-wing MAGA faction of the Republican Party. Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said in his resignation letter last week that Iran had not posed an imminent threat to the United States, and that the war the U.S. started was due to pressure from Israel and its powerful lobbying groups.

On the 19th, Netanyahu denied claims that Israel deliberately “dragged the U.S. into a war with Iran.” He retorted, “Does anyone really think that someone can influence the decisions of President Trump? Don’t be ridiculous.” However, multiple anonymous officials said that Netanyahu is an “effective lobbyist,” and that his explanation is “persuasive to Trump.”

U.S. media accuse Mossad of misleading Trump

According to a report by The New York Times on the 22nd, on the eve of the U.S.-Israel military strikes, Mossad director David Barnea had told Netanyahu that within the days after the war broke out, Mossad would be able to mobilize Iran’s anti-government forces to trigger domestic unrest and rebellion, ultimately pushing the Iranian regime to collapse.

The report, citing officials from both the U.S. and Israel, said that Mossad’s plan was not only adopted by Netanyahu, but was also used by Netanyahu as the basis to persuade Trump to start the war, making Trump confident that toppling Iran’s regime was a realistic goal. It was said that the two leaders were optimistic about the plan, believing that as long as they could assassinate Iran’s leadership during the early phase of the war’s outbreak, and then carry out a series of intelligence operations to facilitate regime change, it would trigger widespread unrest and rebellion, thereby quickly ending the war.

Some senior U.S. officials, as well as intelligence analysts from Israel’s military intelligence directorate (AMAN), expressed doubts about the feasibility of the plan. U.S. military leadership also told Trump that Iranian civilians could not be expected to take to the streets to protest during U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran. Intelligence officials also pointed out that the likelihood of large-scale rebellion capable of threatening the stability of Iran’s regime was low.

The report’s analysis said that Trump and Netanyahu were confident that the U.S.-Israel alliance could stir up large-scale rebellions, but that confidence became a fundamental flaw in the United States’ war-preparation process. Now, U.S. officials no longer discuss in public the possibility of unrest inside Iran. Even Netanyahu himself expressed disappointment that Mossad failed to deliver on its promise to incite rebellion. On the 19th, he acknowledged that the U.S.-Israel alliance could not achieve regime change through air operations alone and that it would “need ground action in coordination.”

“Trump should bear full responsibility”

Although many reports suggest that Netanyahu appears to be the main driver behind Trump’s final decision to attack Iran, many analysts have pointed out that Trump himself should bear full responsibility for his decision.

On March 23, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis said at the CERAWeek conference that the United States is currently in “a difficult position” with “not many good options.” He criticized the Trump administration’s overall strategic goals toward Iran as still unclear, and said it had failed to conduct strategic thinking on the Iran issue.

Former U.S. Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA Leon Panetta said Trump is trapped in a dilemma and has sent the world “signals of weakness.” “He is often too naive about how things will unfold. He holds hope for things he has said and has kept saying—that what he says will eventually come true. But that’s something only children would do, not something a president should do.”

Panetta told The Guardian that the Hormuz Strait issue “isn’t any kind of deep academic subject.” “In every National Security Council meeting I participated in, as soon as the topic of Iran came up, it was always mentioned. For some reason, they (the Trump administration) either didn’t consider that this could be a consequence, or they thought the war would end quickly, so they didn’t need to worry about it.”

In an article in The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Daniel Kurtzer, a professor of Middle East policy research at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, wrote that the conflict the United States is currently having with Iran was entirely caused by Trump himself—triggered by an incorrect and unverified assessment of an “imminent threat” from the United States, and without carefully considering its potential costs and consequences.

“Khamenei has been openly urging the United States for 40 years to overthrow Iran’s regime, and successive U.S. governments have ignored it. Only Trump has been willing to cooperate with Netanyahu’s policy… Although Netanyahu may have influenced the timing of U.S. involvement in the conflict, it is still Trump himself who truly walked onto the path to war,” Kurtzer wrote.

Pengpai News reporter Li Yibin

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