Middle Eastern aluminum industry was suddenly attacked, causing the A-share aluminum sector to open higher and strengthen collectively, with the China Securities ETF Taikang surging nearly 2%

Ask AI · How an Attack on Middle East Aluminum Triggers a Global Aluminum Price Ripple Effect?

As of the midday close on March 30, 2026, the Taikang Nonferrous ETF (159163) was up 1.78%, with a turnover rate of 3.94% and trading volume of CNY 7.9967 million. The tracked CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Thematic Index (931892) surged 1.65%; constituent stocks included Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum up 9.99%, Yunnan Aluminum up 8.56%, Chifeng Gold up 7.04%, Shandong Gold, Aluminum Corporation of China, and other individual stocks also rose in tandem.

As of March 27, over the past 10 trading days, the Taikang Nonferrous ETF (159163) has cumulatively “drawn in” CNY 12.1618 million.

On the news front, recently, Iran launched strikes on two major players’ core production sites—Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Bahrain Aluminium—sparking major震动 in the global aluminum supply chain. Data show that EGA’s annual production capacity is about 2.69 million metric tons (about 3.5%-4% of the global total), while Bahrain Aluminium’s annual production capacity is 1.62 million metric tons (about 2% of the global total). Together, the two account for over 6% of global primary aluminum electrolysis capacity, and they had already been operating under reduced production due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This attack damaged core electrolysis cells; the estimated restart and recovery cycle is expected to be 6-12 months. Combined with production limits at plants such as Qatar Aluminium, more than 30% of capacity in the Middle East has effectively shut down, revealing a rigid global aluminum supply shortfall.

Driven by this catalyst, in the early trading session on March 30, LME aluminum jumped more than 4%, while Shanghai aluminum opened higher in sync and moved strongly upward. In A-shares, the nonferrous aluminum sector lifted across the board; multiple stocks, including Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum, Minfa Aluminum, and Changlv Co., hit their daily price limits. Leading names such as Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Hongqiao Holdings surged significantly. Institutional analysts noted that this is a triple shock—hard damage to capacity, logistics bottlenecks, and raw-material supply disruption—making the upside logic for aluminum prices clear. Aluminum companies in China with capacity and cost advantages are expected to see both volume and price rise together, and sector valuation repair is on the cards.

According to Huafu Securities, among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are both deeply affected by the situation in the Middle East. For copper, near term, price fluctuations are still suppressed by wavering expectations of Fed rate cuts, but the fundamentals remain relatively tight. Over the medium to long term, with the rebound in demand from new energy and insufficient capital expenditure on the mining side converging, the supply-demand gap is expected to continue expanding. For aluminum, it maintains a high-level range-bound pattern under the dual drivers of overseas supply disruptions and the stagflation trade. In China, operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum is already close to the ceiling, and reduced supply elasticity supports a shift upward in the price center of gravity.

The Taikang Nonferrous ETF (159163) closely tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Thematic Index. The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Thematic Index selects 40 securities of publicly listed companies with nonferrous metals and mining resource reserves from the nonferrous metals sector as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of securities of listed companies in the nonferrous metals mining thematic segment.

Data show that as of February 27, 2026, the top 10 weighted stocks of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Thematic Index (931892) are Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, Aluminum Corporation of China, Zijin Mining’s? (CICC Gold? ) 中金黄金, Shandong Gold, Ganfeng Lithium, Xingye Silver & Tin, and Xiamen Tungsten. The combined share of the top 10 weighted stocks is 52.57%. (The stocks listed above are only index constituents, and do not imply any specific recommendation.)