Pantson Macro: The European Central Bank may raise interest rates mid-year while keeping the option to cut rates open

2026-03-31 12:05:32

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Deep Tide TechFlow message. On March 31, according to data from Jint10, Claus Vistesen of Pansen Macro said in a report that the European Central Bank may raise rates in the coming months. Overall inflation in the euro area rose to 2.5% in March, and it is expected to continue rising in the near term; this year and next year are expected to stabilize in the 2.5% to 3.0% range. Pansen Macro expects the central bank to hike rates by 25 basis points in both June and July. Even so, given weak economic performance, rate cuts will still remain on the policy options. “We expect the European Central Bank to try to fine-tune at levels close to the upper end of the neutral range for policy rates (around 2.5%) in order to strike a balance between the risk of inflation moving higher and the risk of the economy falling into recession.”

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