The final blow of March: 4,190 tokens turned green, and even a trading volume of two trillion can't save this disastrous ending.

Yesterday’s deep-V reversal after a low open—making so many people think the big A finally straightened its back. [Taoguba]

However today, the last trading day of March, the market shattered yesterday’s fantasies with a move of a high open and a low close. The Shanghai Composite was still repairing the gap in the morning, then slid lower all afternoon; the ChiNext fell more than 2.7%, with more than 4,190 declining stocks. Turnover surged to two trillion yuan, yet what it brought was still a sea of green.

And that’s how March ends.
I. The closing day of volume-price divergence

Today’s intraday action is a typical high open and low close. In the early session, about 3,000 stocks were up; as sentiment cooled off, by the close only 903 stocks were still red—everything else became cannon fodder. Put it in one number: the up/down ratio is about 1:4.6.

Volume expanding + broad weakness across individual stocks is a textbook case of volume-price divergence. The ballooning trading volume isn’t incremental capital coming in—it’s what happens when stockholders retreat and selling pressure triggers a stampede from existing positions. This is even more worth watching than the index’s rate of decline. Yesterday’s volume was a sentiment rebound; today’s volume is accelerated兑现 (lock-in). Their nature is completely different.

II. Hot-spot tracking: Rail transit stands out alone

Today’s toughest move in the market is the collective surge of the rail transit sector. The trigger came from a CCTV Finance segment broadcast on March 30: China will build high-speed rail underwater in the Yangtze River, with total investment in along-the-river high-speed rail exceeding 500 billion yuan, driving value-added growth of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan across upstream and downstream industries. With national will behind it, this isn’t just any random piece of news.

Gowan Heavy Industry: 20CM limit-up sealed
China Railway Construction Industry, Jinxi Axle: 10CM limit-up
Guangri Co., Ltd.: limit-up (annual report net profit 689 million + 10 shares cash dividend 4 yuan; policy + performance double catalysts)
Shenzhou High-Speed Railway: two consecutive limit-ups; capital keeps moving in
Tongye Technology, Jiaoda-Tier: up more than 10%

Rail transit is the most important card holding up the index for the whole afternoon today. But note: the success rate of limit-up sealing today can only be described as average. Overall sentiment is weak; whether it can continue depends on capital’s follow-through. The investment logic of 500 billion yuan is solid enough, but the sentiment environment isn’t supportive—don’t expect a big move to be delivered in one breath.

III. Full breakdown of consecutive-limit-up lineups and limit-up events

Today’s maximum consecutive limit-ups are 4; there are 8 consecutive limit-up stocks in total, with sentiment indicators still oscillating at low levels.
4-limit-up: Shenjian Co., Ltd. (commercial aerospace)
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3-limit-up: Jinyao Pharmaceutical (innovative medicine going overseas)
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2-limit-up: Shenzhou High-Speed Railway, Hongchang Technology (20CM), Minfa Aluminum Industry, Anhui Construction Engineering, Bangjie Shares, Pingtan Development

Category of limit-up events:

Commercial aerospace (5): Shenjian Co., Ltd. 4 boards; Shunhao Shares; Shaoyang Hydraulic; Juli Wire Rope; Suzhou Keda — the successful launch of “Raptor 2” + SpaceX IPO plans to raise $75 billion
Yangtze River along-the-river high-speed rail (7): Shenzhou High-Speed Railway 2 boards; Gowan Heavy Industry; China Railway Construction Industry; Jinxi Axle; Sinochem Litho etc.
Innovative medicine going overseas (4): Wanbangde 6 days with 4 boards; Jinyao Pharmaceutical 3 boards; Carlyle Pharmaceutical; Luxian Pharmaceutical — 2026 overseas BD general contracting totals $57.1 billion, higher than all of 2024
Xue Xue locomotive / two-wheelers (4): Hongchang Technology 2 boards 20CM; Zhenghe Industrial; Qianjiang Motorcycle; Fioar Shares — China-brand WSBK champion; orders queued to June
Compute power coordination / green electricity (5): Minde Electric Power; Kingyuan Tong; Xinneng Taishan; Xinzhonggang; Shenzhen Nan Electric A — compute power coordination is written into the government work report for the first time
Consumer sports (5): Tiandi Online; Shua Sports; Sansha Impression etc. — the Super League starts in April + the World Cup in June

Highlights of announcement-driven limit-ups:
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Tonga Shares: net profit up 533.17% year over year
Songzhi Shares: net profit up 81.32% year over year
Yutong Bus: net profit 5.554 billion yuan, up 34.94% year over year

IV. Sentiment thermometer

Today’s sentiment data: from the consecutive-limit-up angle, there are 8 consecutive limit-up boards; the highest is 4 boards; 1 stock has 4 boards, 1 stock has 3 boards, and 6 stocks have 2 boards.

Today’s decline in activity is worth close attention: after last Friday the power sector, as the core sentiment vehicle, cashed out, short-term sentiment has continued to weaken in a down-channel. Stocks such as Yizhongtian and Fuilian fell hard today, indicating that the core holding type carrying existing capital is loosening—this is a warning sign that sentiment will weaken further, not a good time to play the odds.

V. Three details worth revisiting most today

First: Aerospace “rotten board” after lunch—what does it mean?
As a leading commercial aerospace company, Shenjian Co., Ltd. showed a rotten board after lunch today (opened up after being sealed). Many follow-the-leader stocks surged and then fell back sharply. This is a clear signal: when the leader’s limit-up at a high consecutive-board position turns unstable, capital’s divergence has already begun. Those chasing the high were betting on another board; those cashing out were locking in gains. At the 4-board level, the safety margin is thinning by the day—the tomorrow’s price action directly determines the subsequent height of this line.

Second: 7 grid-power limit-up boards is a self-rescue by trapped funds from yesterday.
Today the power grid direction has 7 stocks hitting limit-up, but the logic behind it isn’t new capital entering—it’s a self-rescue action by funds that were trapped yesterday. This kind of self-rescue rebound usually lacks staying power, so it’s not suitable to chase in the short term.

Third: The number of new highs shrinks down to 10; optical communications stands alone.
At today’s close, only 10 stocks are at new highs, mainly concentrated in optical communications. Yesterday there were 17; the day before had 18. The count of new highs continues to contract, and the market’s “spread” is clearly narrowing. This is the harsh reality: there are fewer and fewer candidates across the whole market that can make new highs; it shows the strength of the rally is concentrating rather than broad-based.

VI. Written on the last page of March

March ends, and the first quarter ends too. This month’s market action can be described as hard to watch; with prop-trader activity declining, is that a bad thing or a good thing?

In the short term, fewer prop-trader moves means the profit-making effect is thinner, and it’s getting harder for followers to make money. But if you look further out, when prop traders are highly active, it often corresponds to sentiment peaks—when they’re most exuberant, they’re often when retail is easiest to get cut. This current calm and restraint may not be a bad thing.

The hardest part of March isn’t how much the index fell, but that you can never guess where its next slash will land. Yesterday a deep-V; today a high open and low close. Rail transit just exploded, and aerospace already turned rotten. Volume surged, yet it’s a 4:1 pattern of more down than up. This kind of super fast “fan” rotation行情 (market) gives you the urge to participate, but it takes away your confidence to participate.

Tomorrow starts a new month. For April, the two things to keep an eye on are not limit-ups, but: first, whether the follow-on capital baton in along-the-river high-speed rail can keep going (the 500 billion yuan logic is solid, but the bottom of sentiment hasn’t been confirmed yet); second, the timing rhythm of earnings report “bombs”—every bomb could become another suppression of sentiment.

The choices by top prop traders today already tell the whole story: Zhang Mengzhu starts making first-limit boards; Ziyang Dong begins rotating positions; Sang Tian Lu starts distributing. Their consensus isn’t chasing highs—it’s finding the next undervalued direction. What we can do is follow their footprints to find the road, not chase shadows behind them.

That’s where we’ll end the last line of March. The market didn’t give a pretty closing performance, but it also didn’t completely collapse. If you can preserve principal and stay clear-headed in a market like this, April has already won half.

Remember to like and follow—limit-ups keep coming tomorrow! 💖

Everything has its season
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For example, when spring arrives, the east wind spills rain and dew**
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For example, when summer nears, the leaves turn into a screen even more**
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For example, when you and I meet**
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Wishing everyone rationality to stay close and good luck always accompanying you!**

Disclaimer: This article only records my own operations. Investing involves risk; trading requires caution. Plans can never change as fast as events. Everything follows the market’s moves. The content of the article is my personal thinking and record, shared only as personal sharing of how I understand the market; it does not constitute any investment advice. For reference only—buying and selling based on this is at your own risk for gains and losses.