3.31 Subjective Cycle Review Post: The 6th Round of Genuine Commitment Rebound, Black at the End of the Month, Looking Forward to a Good Start

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Market

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1.91 trillion is still below 2 trillion—trash time. The rebound hasn’t finished yet, and it still can’t be viewed as a full reversal.

Before the final warning on the 4th/7th, I think this is how it will keep repeating—range-bound consolidation and base-building.

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Emotion is emotion**

Emotion cycle is emotion cycle
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Theme cycle is theme cycle**

Emotion is emotion

On Monday: limit-up 62, limit-down 10; faces 3 multi-day board streaks, 12 large boards over 10% red, 10 large boards over 10% red? 17.

Failed breakouts 17; touched limit-down 39. Number of stocks in the red: 2805. Overall 56. Market trading volume: 19159. Failed breakout rate: 21%.

Top 20 by volume: 0.22% 9 red; highest turnover: MRC? “Zhongji Aoxuechuang” -1.49% 122亿.

On Tuesday: limit-up 53, limit-down 1; faces 5 multi-day board streaks, 8 large boards, 12 large boards over 10% red 17.

Failed breakouts 17; touched limit-down 8. Number of stocks in the red: 903. Overall 35. Market trading volume: 19992. Failed breakout rate: 24%.

Top 20 by volume: -3.58% 1 red; highest turnover: MRC? “Zhongji Aoxuechuang” -3.34% 149亿.

Tuesday, single day:

Emotion shows strong divergence.

The profit-making effect is concentrated in local high-position tight groups—weaker than yesterday.

Low-level new themes rotate in.

The loss-making effect.

In every aspect, because today is broad market pullback/decline.

The profit-making effect risk appetite favors contrarian calls—reversal, back-then-reversal, and green reversal.

The loss-making effect risk appetite—momentum for follow-through is stronger, even stronger.

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Emotion cycle is emotion cycle**

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After the sell-off, a chaotic period rebound.

It’s the transition before the new week’s cycle starts—an overhang.

Yesterday was weak repair; today is divergence repair, and both are possible.

Today is strong divergence; tomorrow at the open is strong divergence continuation.

But by the close, it may not be divergence anymore.

Because this is a chaotic period.

Tomorrow’s normal expectation is repair continuation—whether it’s strong repair or weak repair.

Tomorrow continues repairing—does it open with a green day? Mwah—hope it doesn’t turn into an April Fools’ situation.

Theme cycle

Theme strength

The strongest theme intraday: annual report performance. 5738 is a bonus item.
Strongest intraday sub-theme.

Second in strength: commercial aerospace 3002.

Cycle review:

Type A theme cycle—unite the river and lake, dominate the whole arena (commercial aerospace, across the strait).

In this kind of cycle, there’s basically no need to analyze other themes. Build the leader, do the breakout follow-ups—just look at the main line. Any other lines—just a glance is a sin.

Type B theme cycle—multiple cycles running in parallel; dramatic moves, turning the world upside down (MY war, first quarter of 2026).

Right now, it’s still the B-type cycle’s strong-phase continuation.

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Bulk trades**

As long as geopolitics doesn’t end, this keeps fermenting and being mined.

But this direction’s rhythm is the worst. There’s no “core leader” product to open up room—low-level themes keep reviving repeatedly.

Anchor the last leader of the previous strong move—Jinniu Chemical is already walking through the decline midway.

The latest low-level follow-up plays are aluminum and agriculture, but the follow-up isn’t strong either.

Too dependent on futures—don’t look at it.

Intraday: bulk-trade leaders are weak; follow-ups are also weak.

Electric power—the most clearly timed sector.

Right now it’s in the down leg of the overall leader variety, Yuying Holdings.

The fourth round of follow-up: two Hua Dian high-position tops, then the disagreement-to-pullback phase after the top.

Then attempts at the fifth low-level follow-up ignition.

But here today, the low-level follow-up isn’t showing well.

There’s a one-word board from Shunfa Hengneng. Even though it’s an acquisition, it’s still electric power.

There’s also first-board electric power follow-up plays.

But those two in the 4-stage and the core are just too eye-catching—way too active.

Especially Hua Dian Energy almost went “from limit-down to limit-up on the same day” (地天). If it continues upward:

On the right-side breakout highs, there are two issues:

First, it will still trigger 200% abnormal trading—don’t dare to go up; if it goes down, it’s a second injury to the whole sector.

Second, if they make new right-side highs, then the fifth-round low-level follow-up here gets falsified.

They’re still within the two Hua Dian cycles. In that case, low-level follow-up plays are nothing.

Intraday electric power: follow-ups aren’t strong; leaders aren’t strong; but tight-group identification is strong.

Big-tech computing power-related

Domestic computing power—the rhythm is the least clear. Don’t even bother talking about it.

Tomorrow there’s another chance, because this direction has the longest adjustment time. After this rebound, the later phase is the weakest.

Overseas computing power—this is a bug. Looking at this direction, there’s no need to start a new cycle.

Because the leader and core identification are all at right-side new highs.

Funds are still digging for follow-up plays. Today they dug Guangbang.

Leader: Changfei Optic Fiber.

Core identification: Farsing. Tomorrow: +3.11% to 200%.

Hangdian Co., Ltd. is also at a right-side new high.

For this direction, follow-ups are purely for arbitrage and don’t provide strength.

Then the mid-cap first-line variety, Yizhongtian, moves along with overseas. Large declines drag the sector down.

Intraday: optics leader is strong; identification tight group is strong; follow-ups are weak.

Testing the new cycle: there are many themes, not focused. Once it walks onto the stage of “everyone agrees,” then later it’s all types of兑现 (being cashed out).

Lithium batteries, pharma, commercial aerospace, rail transit, motorcycles—this part is kind of nonsense.

Across the strait

Let’s look—rebounded for 6 days.

The first few days were broad-market up days and were strong.

After the divergence on 03.28, the one that resists pullbacks was lithium batteries—it was also a new theme.

On 03.29, after the repair, lithium batteries and pharma hit a climax.

On 03.30, weak repair continued.

Lithium batteries: consensus continues, then turns into divergence.

Pharma: consensus continues, then turns into differentiation.

Commercial aerospace became the strongest.

But that’s also different from the old-cycle new theme.

On 03.31, rail transit was the strongest.

Commercial aerospace: consensus continues, then turns into divergence.

So it means: within the 6-day rebound, the last 4 days—everything strong is new themes.

So they definitely represent the low positions.

That also means: the follow-up plays from the old cycle are also at low positions, but they can’t beat the front-runners of the new themes.

However, new themes don’t have staying power. After a strong burst, later it’s basically whoever connects to a bag, whoever takes over a bag.

On the contrary, old-cycle high-position plays with strong identification tight-group coalesced—forming synergy, “tight group power shining in the light direction”—so the tight group wins.

So today is again a divergence. If tomorrow repairs:

From the theme perspective, you need to see who resonates into the new direction.

It could be commercial aerospace that can resist dips, then turns strong again—you’d have to look at it with higher regard. But the normal expectation is to go into divergence.

It could be rail transit—after all, it seems like a new theme.

It could also be, within the old cycle, continue choosing one direction and keep rotating.

So right now it’s just too annoying—there’s absolutely no certainty. A lot can only be seen intraday.

What funds choose—can’t be predicted.

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Summary**

Emotion anchors: Shen Jian Co., Ltd. (神剑股份). If it strengthens tomorrow, it directly gives commercial aerospace an expectation.

To be honest, it’s hard. The late-day twitch of Aerospace Development—commercial aerospace’s emotion might be bad tomorrow.

The whole chain-board follow-through got ruined again.

If New Energy Tai Shan (新能泰山) can do a reversal into two straight limit-up boards, it would be better—because it can make a right-side new high.

No matter what, it’s still a live account at the 03.24 node.

Emotion cycle: right now it’s the third phase of the sell-off, and it’s day 6 of the rebound.

The rebound still isn’t over. The pullback expectations are still there.

Theme cycle: can’t anchor. Every theme line has its own leader-type stock.

When a theme line moves into divergence and the sell-off phase, it doesn’t delay the other lines—those can move strong directly intraday.

Most cycles have already walked a perfect structure of a “big five-wave” setup.

The next time a theme becomes a resonance turning point, it’s easy to become a new cycle.

New themes keep retrying and testing, but in the old cycle there are three themes that nobody wants to die with.

That’s exactly what makes it especially hard here.

Node

03.24

Effective, but not the best node

MeiNuoHua—divergence broke the board.

New Energy Tai Shan—reversal into a higher close, boards again.

ShuHua Sports—4 boards in 6 days; football + Fujian. Today it boosted consumption.

Quantitative Era
“Pursuing objectivity can’t beat quantitative trading; the only thing that can beat quantitative trading is a person’s subjectivity.”
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My subjectivity is**

In the chaos period: form expectations, don’t follow into the expectation after it’s already realized.

Don’t do “stronger and even stronger.”

Do less “weak turning to strong.”

Do more low buys when divergence is fading and exhaustion sets in.

If tomorrow is strong repair, then the front-row theme with the strongest intraday strength is something you can chase.

Because there will still be a momentum inertia continuation expectation for the day after tomorrow.

Key stock commentary

MeiLiYun

Broke below the 10-day line.

A technical breakdown—anyone who had the initiative should have already left.

We don’t have evidence, but the order book today just feels like—

Funds are crazily buying the dip.

Tomorrow as long as the overall market and emotion don’t go into an ice point—

As long as it goes into repair, this stock should bounce once at least, depending on whether funds can draw a chart and push it to a limit-up.

Right now, with this stock already at one limit-up, there’s basically no sell pressure.

Not key stock commentary

Langfang Development

Today in the electric power sector, intraday, it clearly feels a bit “sticky” compared with the market index.

If tomorrow in the early session electric power continues to strengthen,

see if it can surge with it.

The stock’s “trading personality” is too poor—more like take a look and then subscribe.

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New Energy Tai Shan**

04.23 at this node.

I guess the next live account can’t be kept either.

Because there’s still one more market pullback to come.

Then you can prove whether this node is invalid.

In this “electric power” direction, people’s hearts are scattered; it’s hard to lead the troops.

I said before: if on the fifth wave there are too many “outward-cut” theme plays,

then the electric power fifth wave will be very weak.

If you want to study deeply, you can go to the blogger’s homepage to see it.

Below are many posts with a large amount of publicly shared learning material:

A digest set (many content-heavy articles) — table of contents.

A historical review of emotion cycles—learn from history to know about rise and fall. Table of contents.

Emotion cycle video explanations—people who watch say they’re great; why don’t you also take a look?

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Statement: I’m only recording my own trades, and I do not force anyone to follow and buy. So everyone should be cautious. This blog only records my own trades.
(Investing involves risk; trading requires caution. Plans can never keep up with changes; everything follows the chart. The content of this blog belongs to everyone’s thinking and records. I record my own understanding of the market and only share it personally. It does not constitute investment advice. For reference only. Any buying and selling based on this is at your own risk and loss is your responsibility!)