Hexun Investment Advisor Huang Linkun: The power sector's mass limit-up and limit-down trend is retreating, and a new main trend is emerging in April

Today, one power stock hit its daily limit-down. It sent all the traders who were doing the old dragons, doing the new dragons, doing arbitrage, and doing pull-up-after-drawdowns all down the river. But while everyone was still counting how much they had lost, truly smart capital had quietly switched directions and started laying out a new main theme that would run through the entire month of April. This main theme isn’t the commercial aerospace theme that’s been soaring the hardest, and it’s not the innovation-drug theme being hyped by quant funds. Instead, it’s the same line that shows up every April and reliably gives birth to “big妖s” that double year after year.

First, let’s talk about why it isn’t innovation drugs. Aimo 5 consecutive limit-ups became the market’s top stock. Even at low levels, there’s a whole group of first- and second-day starters that look pretty loud. According to Hexun Investment Advisory analyst Huang Linkun, in the innovation-drug sector, aside from Saili that climbed to the limit-up in the afternoon, nearly all the rest completed their limit-up within just a few minutes after the open. That’s a textbook move by quant funds: when those quant-fund stocks that reached the “quant top” limit-up, their next day performance is basically green. That’s very likely them lifting the sedan for quant funds. So the innovation-drug line is ruled out directly.

Next, why it isn’t commercial aerospace. Under the catalyst of the news that spacex will list in June, the Shenjian stock hit three consecutive limit-ups and then added another three more days to reach a three-limit-up again. Today it moved extremely actively. A lot of people might think this is the new main theme. But if you look closely at today’s market microstructure details: in the early session, power stocks hit a limit-down and the market sentiment went into a vacuum. This was actually the best moment for bold capital to rotate and attack a new direction. Yet the core commercial-aerospace stocks like Nanchang Aviation and Zhong卫 satellite barely moved at all in the morning. Capital instead waited until the close to stage a rally and guide the move.

If commercial aerospace really were the new main theme, why wouldn’t capital smash it in the early session? The answer is only one: they had already been stealthily positioned, and they were waiting for retail investors to rush in before unloading the goods to everyone in one go. What’s more, once the launch of Jianjian 2 tonight comes and falls short of expectations, or if the good news lands without impact, then Shenjian—which benefits—will be directly cashed out by funds, creating a negative feedback effect on the whole sector. So this commercial aerospace line is also ruled out.

Then there’s optical communications and Fujian. Optical communications, and 福建. This “呢福建” is short-term news-driven, and Pingtan and Hefei all-fu don’t have a way to keep running. In a scenario like “年” (that kind of major-advance行情), optical communications’ core Longfei has already been setting new all-time highs continuously. Chasing gains now carries extremely high risk. At low levels, the “补涨” stocks like Fujing Hangdian have limited upside height and can’t possibly exceed Longfei. The timing for a major advance just isn’t there yet. With those four directions ruled out one by one, the market’s answer is already very clear.

So what exactly is the April main theme? Here’s the direct answer: the earnings line has a three-layer logic—one layer tougher than the next. First layer: market space has already been opened. Huadian has pulled the consecutive-limit-up height of this round of power stocks to a historical level. That means funds have already validated the market’s ability to absorb. The new main theme they build next will only have higher limit-up height, and the persistence will be even stronger.

Second layer: in April, it’s naturally the season for earnings trading. April is the mandatory disclosure period for annual reports and first-quarter reports. Historically, this is a golden window when capital trades earnings. Every year, there are big “double” monsters born. For example, the year before last, Zhengdang had explosive earnings growth, and April saw a 10x jump. Last year, Hongbao’s earnings surged; in April the cumulative gain exceeded 100%. The pattern has never been missing. So why would this year be an exception?

Third layer: today’s price action has already provided confirmation. Do you remember today’s Tianlv and Keda? One had first-quarter earnings pre-increase plus an aluminum theme. The other had annual report earnings pre-increase plus lithium-battery. During today’s power-stock pullback and when the whole market was in chaos, these two names’ moves were clearly more independent and more stable than the surrounding stocks. That’s the hallmark of earnings-driven behavior: themes can fade, but earnings will keep capital behind. And the closer you get to the disclosure deadline, the stronger that independence becomes. Even if the theme basically ends, companies with earnings can still run a relatively independent phase of action.

With the three layers stacked, the earnings line running through April has certainty far beyond any direction on today’s chart.

（责任编辑：王刚 HF004）

     【免责声明】This article only represents the author’s personal views and is not related to Hexun.com. Hexun.com remains neutral toward the statements and judgment opinions in the text, and provides no express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information contained. Readers are asked to refer for information only and bear all responsibility themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com