A-shares open lower but recover! Feitian Maotai has increased its price.

Today, China’s A-share three major indexes moved in different directions. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.25% and 0.68%, respectively.

Market trading value was 1.9278 trillion yuan, up 63.8 billion yuan from last Friday, with increased volume. The number of advancing stocks was slightly higher than that of declining stocks, and the median of the stock percentage changes was 0.15% higher.

Today, the broad market’s performance was better than expected, mainly in two aspects.

First, last Friday’s U.S. stock market saw a major gap-down adjustment. Against this backdrop—following the decline in Asian stock markets before the open of A-shares today—the broad market could still close in the green, which was very strong.

Second, yesterday Da Ge mentioned that the Shanghai Composite Index’s low point on March 27 should not be broken; if it is not broken, given the presence of bearish news over the weekend, the market could be positioned for a pattern of opening lower and then rising.

Today, not only was the low on March 27 not broken, but the market also showed an opening-lower-then-rising pattern.

So, how will the broad market operate next?

Judging from the 30-minute candlestick chart, the Shanghai Composite Index’s most recent five candlesticks have formed a “single bullish candle + sideways consolidation” pattern. The index level is above multiple short-term moving averages, and those short-term moving averages are intertwined—this suggests that a breakout is imminent.

“Single bullish candle + sideways consolidation” is a buildup/accumulation pattern. Based on experience, the possibility of an upside move is somewhat higher. Therefore, tomorrow’s key focus is whether last Thursday’s high can be broken. If that level is breached, it will confirm the rebound from the right-hand side.

Although the broad market is very resilient and has shown two consecutive sessions of opening lower and then rising, we also cannot ignore the impact of news.

If bearish news causes the Shanghai Composite Index to break below last Friday’s low, there would still be a possibility of a second dip or even making a new low for this current cycle.

Overall, if the Shanghai Composite Index breaks above last Thursday’s high tomorrow, then in the subsequent period it may gain momentum toward the gap’s upper boundary at 3,955 points and an upside move toward 4,000 points.

Recent adjustments in U.S. stocks and U.S. tech stocks have had some impact on relevant sectors in A-shares.

However, Morgan Stanley strategists said that the S&P 500 pullback triggered by the Middle East situation is nearing the end, and the market has already priced in the expectation of oil prices rising.

What Da Ge wants to say is: although U.S. stocks have dropped sharply for two straight days, what has appeared in A-shares has been an opening-lower-then-rising pattern. Once U.S. stocks turn upward again, this will enhance A-shares’ endogenous动力 for the rebound.

As for the Middle East situation, U.S. President Donald Trump said he hopes to “seize Iran’s oil” and may occupy Halk Island, which is a petroleum export hub.

In terms of sectors, the number of advancing sectors is nearly the same as that of declining sectors. Oil, nonferrous metals, building materials, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, banks, and others led by gains.

Defensive sectors and the dividend/bonus-yield (“red利”) sectors led the advance. The recently oversold sectors have been seeing rebounds, indicating that investors’ defensive mindset is still strong.

The dividend/bonus-yield direction has received positive news recently. The Ministry of Finance has released its “Explanation of the 2026 Central State-Owned Capital Operating Budget,” officially publishing the latest remittance ratio.

CITIC Securities pointed out that remittance ratios for various central enterprises are generally being raised by 10–15 percentage points, which is the largest adjustment since the establishment of the system for remitting returns on China’s state-owned capital. This will strengthen expectations for shareholder returns of high-dividend central SOE shares and push up sector valuations.

CITIC Securities further noted that, based on historical experience, after the remittance ratio increases in 2008 and 2015, the dividend payout ratio for the relevant central SOEs rose by about 10%–20%. Focus on three categories of targets: first, leading companies in oil refining and petrochemicals, power, and coal budgets with significant incremental spending—these have stable allocation value; second, companies in nonferrous metal mining and building materials, where budget year-on-year growth is high and where policy marginal changes are large; and third, firms in construction and chemical industries with relatively low dividend payout ratios, where there is significant room for improvement.

Besides defensive and dividend/bonus-yield sectors, earnings growth lines remain the target of investor pursuit.

In the nonferrous metals sector, driven by the news that Tianshan Aluminum’s performance came in above expectations and by attacks on two major aluminum plants in the Middle East, aluminum stocks surged, lifting other nonferrous metal varieties as well.

According to Shenwan Hongyuan, due to issues related to the production commissioning schedule and power disruptions, and considering production cuts in the Middle East and Mozambique, the expected overseas production volume increase for 2026 is projected to turn from the previous 3 million tons to negative growth, and global supply growth would be only 1%. After domestic seasonal inventory digestion, it will provide favorable support for aluminum prices. It is expected that in 2026, overall supply and demand will shift from tight balance to shortage, and under potential disruptions, the vulnerability of electrolytic aluminum supply will become more pronounced.

For optical fiber, the strong year-on-year growth in Longfei Optic Fiber (601869)’s 2025 fourth-quarter performance has driven strength in the optical fiber sector.

CITIC Securities (Construction & Investment) said that overseas demand for optical fiber is being jointly boosted by telecommunications networks, AI, and unmanned aerial vehicles, pushing prices to keep rising and placing the industry in a high-demand, high-visibility cycle.

The lithium battery industrial chain, which performed well last week, shows divergence today. CITIC Construction & Investment (601066) believes that, considering supply and demand, in 2026 the EC and VC segments will be in a tight balance. As the peak season arrives, the profitability of VC and EC is expected to further improve. Also, due to increases in the price of propanediol as a co-product, companies preparing DMC via the PO method are expected to obtain excess profits.

As for alloy cutting tools, Huarui Precision disclosed after the close today that it expects first-quarter net profit of between 150 million yuan and 190 million yuan, up 413.28% to 550.15% year over year. Last year’s full-year net profit was 187 million yuan; this year’s first quarter alone is already close to last year’s full-year net profit.

Next, let’s look at today’s news.

1. Kweichow Moutai (600519) announced that, effective from March 31, the sales contract price of Feitian 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai (600519) (2026) will be adjusted from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,269 yuan per bottle, and the company’s own sales system retail price will be adjusted from 1,499 yuan per bottle to 1,539 yuan per bottle.

From past rounds of price increases for Feitian Moutai, all of them provided some short-term support to the stock price. For example, when Kweichow Moutai announced price increases in 2012, 2017, and 2023, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai rose 6.22%, 8.21%, and 5.72% on those respective single days. This news may provide some support to the liquor (baijiu) sector.

2. Ministry of Commerce: Thoroughly implement special consumer-boosting campaigns; support leisure consumption such as RV and camping; and actively expand low-altitude consumption.

3. State Administration for Market Regulation: Focus on preventing and controlling “involution-style” competition in key industries and sectors such as the platform economy, solar PV, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles.

Da Ge believes that this policy directly targets the core contradiction and will effectively curb the low-price malicious competition in the solar PV, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle industries, helping the industry move from a price war toward orderly development. A few days ago, amid public opinion along the lines of “the takeaway delivery wars should end,” the stock prices of the three major takeaway delivery platform companies surged—indicating, from one side, the market’s positive response to stopping the price war.

4. Gao Jie, Assistant GM of China Aviation Engine Corporation and Chairman of Hangfa Tonghang Power: Over the next 20 years, China’s demand for general aviation engines will exceed 40,000 units (sets).

5. According to CCTV News, an Iranian official said there are plans to implement an admission and charging regime for ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

Finally, Da Ge summarizes: the broad market has shown an opening-lower-then-rising pattern for two consecutive days, with strong resilience. Tomorrow’s key focus is whether it can break above last Thursday’s high. If it breaks, it will mean that the rebound has been confirmed from the right-hand side. In terms of strategy, try to buy on dips as much as possible rather than chasing higher.

As for sectors, focus on the earnings growth line—especially companies with earnings that exceed expectations. In this regard, market expectations for the upstream of the PCB industry chain are relatively strong. In addition, previously price-raised products are seeing earnings being realized, such as the lithium battery industrial chain, which is worth paying attention to.

(责任编辑：张洋 HN080）

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