Sharing an unpopular opinion that is closely aligned with the current market situation:

The initiative in the US-Iran conflict and oil prices still largely remains in the White House's hands.
Currently, the market generally assumes that Trump won't actually push the situation to the point of chaos.
In other words, everyone subconsciously believes that President Trump is used to issuing tough talk, but when it comes to truly harming the economy and midterm elections, he is likely to back down himself.
You can bet that Trump holds certain put options, and when the risks of geopolitical tensions and inflation reach a certain level, he will close those positions, effectively ending the so-called US-Iran conflict and refocusing on the economy.
As a result, after experiencing turbulence, the market suddenly rebounds quickly, aided by the Fed's rate cuts and liquidity injections, which significantly benefits President Trump’s midterm election prospects.