Look at what's happening in the markets this year — it's just madness. All the historical correlations are breaking down, and the old logic no longer applies. It's normal for markets to fall when central banks cut rates because cheap money is used to address problems rather than for speculation. But this year, everything is the opposite — each rate cut triggers a new wave of growth. This can only mean one thing: the system is circulating an enormous amount of liquidity, which will keep the markets afloat.

Let's understand the logic. A high key interest rate means expensive loans. And expensive loans are painful: less money for people, companies earn less, they cut costs, lay off workers, and again, less money for people. It's a closed cycle. When rates fall, theoretically, it should be the same but in the opposite direction. However, this year's rate correlations show a completely different scenario.

The chart shows how this works. The blue lines are Fed meeting days. When the rate remained unchanged, Bitcoin simply moved sideways. But after each rate cut, it started to grow. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, down 2% in the last day because the entire market is holding its breath ahead of today’s meeting.

Today at 22:00 MSK, the rate decision will be announced. The market already prices in a 95% probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut. Logically, this should trigger a new wave of growth. If they cut by 0.5 percentage points, expect big green candles. But here’s the catch: traders aren’t just waiting for the number; they’re waiting for the Fed Chair’s words. His speech will set the tone for the markets for the next month. He could say something that completely changes expectations for the next steps, and then all the correlation math will be rewritten.

So, today is a key day. The market is preparing, which is why it’s not moving. But as soon as the meeting ends and the Fed Chair speaks, we’ll see real movement. Keep an eye on the charts.