It seems that signals are changing in the Bitcoin market. According to a recent statement from an on-chain data analysis company, the so-called PnL indicator, which measures profit and loss, has reached an important turning point. This indicator provides a comprehensive view of realized gains and losses among holders, and in recent weeks, it has shifted to a bearish signal.

Specifically, what has changed is that the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin is no longer increasing. In simple terms, the rate at which new funds are entering the market has significantly slowed down. This is a sign that retail ETF funds and institutional buying momentum are not as strong as before, and this is also reflected in the PnL indicator. Long-term holders have been taking profits and selling off their holdings since early last year, but the funds that used to absorb these sales have now decreased.

Currently, the BTC price is moving around $67,920, down about 46% from the all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025. On-chain data shows that since December, investors have realized losses totaling approximately 69,000 BTC, and on an annual basis, net profits have dropped significantly from around 4.4 million BTC to about 2.5 million BTC. This level is similar to March 2022, a period when the market was also struggling.

Interestingly, even among experts, opinions are divided. Some analysts believe that this bearish signal from the PnL indicator does not necessarily mean an imminent crash. Instead, it could indicate that institutional investors are entering the market more actively, reducing volatility. There is also a possibility that the market structure itself is changing. In any case, to truly understand the significance of the PnL indicator, it’s important to view it within a broader context rather than as a simple bearish signal.