Have you ever stopped to think that there is a 150-year chart that some investors swear can predict market peaks? That’s right, the Ciclo Benner is trending among crypto participants lately, and the story behind it is quite interesting.

It all started when a farmer named Samuel Benner suffered huge losses during the 1873 crisis. After that, he began studying patterns in asset prices and in 1875 published his findings in a book about market highs and lows. The difference is that Samuel Benner didn’t use complex mathematical formulas—he observed solar cycles and how they affected harvests and, consequently, agricultural prices. Quite creative for the time, isn’t it?

The chart Samuel Benner left behind features three main lines: one for years of panic, another for booms (good to sell), and a third for recessions (good to accumulate). He mapped everything out until 2059, and the interesting part is that this cycle accurately predicted several major events—Great Depression, dot-com bubble, even the COVID crash.

Fast forward to today: many people in the crypto community are using the Ciclo Benner to justify optimism in 2025-2026. The circulating prediction is that 2026 will be the market peak, the best time to sell. Some traders even point out that 2023 was ideal for buying, and now we would be in the final stretch before the big move.

But here’s the problem: the economic reality in 2025 was quite different from what the cycle suggested. In April of that year, global markets fell sharply, crypto capitalization plummeted from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion in days, and institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs started raising recession forecasts to 60% and 45%, respectively. This contradicts the optimistic narrative quite a bit.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt was quite skeptical about the chart at the time. He commented that these tools are more distracting than useful for those actually operating in the market. His point: you can’t buy or sell based on a 150-year chart when the market is moving in real time.

Even with these contradictions, some people continue to believe. An investor named Crynet summarized it well: markets are about mood, memory, and momentum, not just numbers. And sometimes these old tools work not because they are magical, but because many people believe they work.

The fact is that interest in Samuel Benner and his cycle has surged in recent months according to Google Trends. Retail investors are seeking optimistic narratives amid economic and political uncertainty. Whether the cycle is a real tool or just confirmation bias, one thing is certain: the market follows its own rhythm, regardless of century-old charts.