The only person Iran could negotiate with is gone. Israel's decapitation tactics are completely dragging the United States into the conflict.

(Source: Shibao New Journey)

Another senior core official in Iran has been beheaded. Larijani has died—why did Israel assassinate him at this particular time? What does his death represent?

You need to know that Larijani is not an ordinary person. He is one of the few all-round political and diplomatic talents in Iran’s political arena. After Iran and the U.S. and Israel went to war, right at the very beginning of the outbreak, Larijani demonstrated extremely strong command-and-control and situational grasp. At that time, when Khamenei had just been attacked and killed, Iran was in panic internally. It was Larijani who stepped forward to coordinate the overall situation, align forces across different sides, and stabilize Iran’s situation.

It can now be confirmed that Larijani really died in the airstrike on March 17. He was attacked at his daughter’s home on the outskirts of Tehran, and among those who also died were his son and several guards.

Everyone, don’t think this was a random attack. Israel is strategically decapitating Iran’s leadership step by step, and the pattern is especially obvious. First, they eliminated Iran’s top leader, Khamenei; then they cleared out Iran’s military command tier, removing commanding generals one by one; and finally they extended the purge to the political coordination tier, which has the ability to coordinate and communicate. Larijani is the key target at this level.

Larijani’s résumé is very impressive. He served twice as the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and he also served as the speaker of Iran’s parliament for 12 years. During his tenure as speaker, he pushed Iran’s nuclear deal with full force. In 2015—precisely under his coordination—Iran and the six countries concerning the Iran nuclear issue reached a landmark nuclear agreement, easing external pressure on Iran.

More importantly, he is the only Iran negotiation counterpart that the West has both recognized and trusted. He comes from a prominent family, with his family holding a great deal of influence in Iran’s religious circles and political establishment. He can restrain Iran’s hardliners from within as well as communicate pragmatically with the West. He is a “buffer valve” between Iran’s internal hardline camp and pragmatic camp—such a talent is very difficult for Iran to replace.

His beheading directly became an important turning point in this war. Before this, although Iran and the West were fighting fiercely, there was still a possibility of communication, and the conflict remained relatively controllable. But once Larijani died, everything changed. Iran’s existing communication channels with the West were completely cut off, and the foundation for peaceful negotiations was completely lost.

You should know that previously, no matter how badly the two sides fought, as long as Larijani was there, there was still a chance to sit down and negotiate. Now that he’s gone, for Iran to rebuild communication channels with the West would be as difficult as reaching the sky. After all, the West can no longer find a negotiator like Larijani—someone who can represent Iran’s core interests and who the West is able to accept.

What is even more worth paying attention to is that after the Revolutionary Guards lose the possibility of political consultation, they will most likely become even more hardline, and they will enhance their own responsiveness and speed. Previously, with Larijani coordinating in the middle, Revolutionary Guards actions would still be somewhat restrained. Now that there is no constraint, their retaliation will only become more intense, turning this conflict from earlier intermittent escalations into continuous retaliation.

There are reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have already been preparing large-scale retaliatory operations. They plan to deploy more ballistic missiles and drones, increase the frequency of strikes on Israel’s homeland and U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and further strengthen control of the Strait of Hormuz—so as to commemorate Larijani and deter the U.S. and Israel.

The current situation in the Middle East has already entered a critical branching point, with only two possibilities. Either this conflict spreads and escalates among multiple countries—including Israel and Iran—throwing the entire Middle East into full-scale war; or after the conflict’s endgame, all sides reshuffle again and rebuild a temporarily stable situation, but such stability is likely only superficial.

There is also another key point: Israel’s strategy of eliminating Iran’s internal forces step by step differs clearly from Trump’s strategy. What Trump wants most right now is to end the Middle East war as soon as possible, and to put his energy into the U.S.-China strategic competition. He doesn’t want to spend too many resources in the Middle East. Daily war costs of $1.5 billion have already left the United States struggling under the burden.

But Israel doesn’t care about Trump’s thinking. It is determined to dismantle Iran’s power structure, forcing Iran to submit by decapitating senior officials. Even if it drags the United States deeper into the war quagmire, it is willing to do so.

Some material sources: Phoenix Television

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