Striking Iran for ammunition shortages, the U.S. "Eastern Wall" finally reaches Ukraine? | Jing Brewing House

Source: Beijing News Opinion

With no sign that the Iran conflict is easing, the United States may place the Middle East above Ukraine—not only in terms of attention, but also in terms of military assistance.

▲ File photo: The “Patriot” air defense system. Photo/IC photo

By | Tao Duanfang

According to a March 26 report by the U.S. media cited by Reference News, due to the Iran conflict causing shortages in supply of some of the U.S. military’s most critical munitions, the U.S. Department of Defense is considering redirecting weapons originally planned to aid Ukraine to the Middle East. The report says the weapons that could be diverted include air-defense interception missiles, which were procured under a NATO plan launched last year. Under that plan, NATO partner countries purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

In response, the Pentagon, the U.S. State Department, and NATO did not immediately respond to media requests for comment.

A report that has drawn global attention

The joint “Epic Fury” armed attack campaign targeting Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel has been underway for four weeks. It is now close to the “five weeks to solve the problem” timeline that U.S. President Trump vowed at the start of the war, but so far there have been no clear signs of a resolution. The parties involved have increasingly shown signs of fatigue.

At such a delicate moment, the media broke news that is closely tied to the U.S.’s ability to sustain a long war.

According to the report, as the battlefield in Iran has become deadlocked, the U.S. is re-evaluating its military priorities. The Pentagon is considering transferring a batch of U.S.-made air-defense interception missiles originally earmarked for Ukraine to the Middle East to meet urgent operational needs in the region.

According to sources, inside the Pentagon there is “heated discussion” about reallocating some supplies. The focus of this discussion is advanced air-defense interception missiles used in systems such as “Patriot” and THAAD. These munitions were ordered through NATO’s “Ukraine Priority Needs List” (PURL) project, launched last year. On March 23, the Pentagon informed the U.S. Congress that it plans to use approximately $750 million in funds provided by NATO countries through PURL to replenish the U.S. military’s own stockpiles, rather than providing additional assistance to Ukraine.

After U.S. President Trump cut most of the direct military assistance to Ukraine, NATO ensured that Ukraine can continue receiving specific weapon equipment through the PURL project. A NATO official said that since last summer, the project has supplied Ukraine with 75% of the interception missiles for the “Patriot” anti-missile defense system, as well as nearly all interception missiles for other air-defense systems.

On March 25, General Michael Kurpee, the commander of U.S. Central Command, delivered a video statement on social media, saying that U.S. forces have struck more than 10,000 Iranian military targets to date and are gradually weakening Iran’s ability to project military power outward. A Pentagon spokesperson said that the U.S. Department of Defense will “ensure that U.S. forces and allies and partners have everything needed to deploy in combat and win.”

Along with the rapid increase in recent days of rumors that the United States might launch a ground war against Iran, more and more people believe that as the fighting continues and escalates, the ammunition shortfall for U.S. forces in the Middle East will inevitably grow larger. Adjusting the priority order for allocating various resources, including munitions, to provide logistical support and保障 for the war against Iran has thus become an unavoidable “must-have.”

▲ On March 25, at the White House in Washington, D.C., the White House press secretary Levit briefed the latest threats to Iran at a press conference: If Iran “doesn’t accept reality” and “misjudges the situation,” Trump is “not bluffing,” and will unleash “full firepower” against Iran to carry out “strikes even more intense than before.” Photo/Xinhua

U.S. forces facing “tense conditions”

Rumors that the U.S. military is “running short on ammunition” spread as early as the first few days after the war began. After Iran got past the initial couple of days of confusion, turned around, and stopped being passively beaten, its counterattacks using tactical missiles, drones, and other means began to make themselves heard. Even though efficiency is not high, it has always been able to ensure a certain degree of penetration and deterrence.

In the view of many military observers, this largely reflects that air-defense interception systems made by the U.S.—including, of course, Israel’s “Iron Dome”—such as THAAD and “Patriot,” are facing ammunition supply bottlenecks. As is well known, the effectiveness of these defensive systems in intercepting is directly proportional to the density of the incoming missile barrage.

In a speech calling on NATO countries to maintain military aid, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently noted that in the first three days of the “Epic Fury” operation, Middle Eastern countries alone fired more than 800 “Patriot” missiles intended to intercept Iran’s retaliatory strikes. It is difficult for U.S.-based production capacity to make up for the number of missiles consumed by such intensive launches, not to mention how expensive each missile is.

In recent days, reports have said that as the scale of the fighting expands and U.S. troops on the front line increase, the U.S. military’s daily direct costs for the war have risen to more than $2 billion.

Although Trump and the Secretary of Defense Hegseth have repeatedly “refuted” rumors about the U.S. military’s lack of ammunition, saying the U.S. military has “sufficient ammunition” and that “it’s enough no matter how long they want to fight,” observers have already seen a series of measures clearly aimed at filling the ammunition shortfall, including convening a meeting at the White House with major defense manufacturers to “push production,” as well as, as has been confirmed, urgently rerouting part of the “THAAD” missile defense systems scheduled to be deployed in South Korea to the Middle East.

If the latest report is confirmed, it will further reflect the tension faced by the U.S. forces. With conflict escalating and fiscal pressure increasing, resources are becoming increasingly tight, and production cannot keep up with ever-growing global demand.

Earlier, many people were already worried that, since there are no signs the Iran conflict will ease, the United States might place the Middle East above Ukraine—not only in terms of attention, but also in terms of military assistance. In reality, this trend has already existed: redirecting weapons to the Middle East instead of aid to Ukraine. It is just that this approach has become less concealed than before.

Concerns from Ukraine

After the above news came out, Ukrainian officials publicly stated their concerns, believing that Washington’s attention and resources are focusing more on the Middle East, seriously damaging Ukraine’s interests and also damaging the commitments the United States previously made to Ukraine.

On March 26, Zelensky addressed the meeting of leaders of the Combined Expeditionary Forces held in Helsinki, Finland, calling on Europe “to have the full capability to produce all types of air-defense systems and their missiles,” including the ability to defend against threats from defense drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. He said, “We can’t rely on other partners’ industry. We must have confidence in Europe’s domestic industry. As we build this capability, please remember: we need to defend against attacks from Russian missiles every single day.”

These anxious remarks show both Ukraine’s current reliance on U.S.-made air-defense interception weapons, and its disappointment with the U.S. aid effort weakening further, as well as an urgency to find alternative means.

NATO and European leaders also expressed the same concern. French President Emmanuel Macron said at the closing ceremony of the EU summit in Brussels last week that the Iran conflict “must not distract us from our support for Ukraine.”

In the face of the mounting concerns and questions flooding in, later on the 26th, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference that he would not comment on key assistance, but he assured that major military equipment and military intelligence from the United States “are still continuing to flow” to Ukraine.

However, regarding the above “indirect response,” most observers say that “its persuasiveness is questionable.”

Many military observers further pointed out that no matter how much “substance” the report may contain, the objective fact that the Iran military actions further increase the U.S. military’s global war resource shortfall can no longer be concealed. No matter what methods the United States uses to make up for it, it will inevitably be a growing common sight to keep trying to “break down one wall and patch another.” The remaining suspense is only a few things—namely, “which wall will be demolished this time,” and “whether there will still be time to patch and save the emergency.”

Written by / Tao Duanfang (columnist)

Edited by / Chi Daohua

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