Date: March 30, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: Houthi forces launch missile attacks and drone strikes against Israel, officially forming a third front
· Impact: Spillover of conflict → Risks of dual waterways in the Red Sea and Middle East, rising oil prices and shipping stocks, global markets under pressure.
· Focus: Whether there will be a substantial blockade of the Strait of Mandeb or a surge in insurance costs.

2)
· Event: The U.S. is reportedly preparing a ground operation plan against Iran lasting several weeks
· Impact: Expected escalation to war level → Rapid increase in oil risk premiums, global risk assets under pressure.
· Focus: Whether ground troops will actually enter or be authorized to pass through.

3)
· Event: Israel has used over 150 aircraft in the past 24 hours to strike weapons and missile facilities in Tehran
· Impact: Increased intensity of military conflict → Markets reprice "full-scale war risk."
· Focus: Whether nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure are affected.

4)
· Event: Iran accuses the U.S. of negotiating while preparing to invade and threatens full retaliation
· Impact: Decreased credibility of negotiations → Market sentiment shifts to safe-haven assets, gold and the dollar benefit.
· Focus: Whether negotiations will be interrupted or if there will be direct military responses.

5)
· Event: Iran and its proxy forces target U.S. military bases and energy facilities in the Gulf
· Impact: Real damage to energy supply chains → Oil prices tend to rise, energy stocks strengthen.
· Focus: Whether the conflict will expand to core facilities of more oil-producing countries.

6)
· Event: Multiple Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain) affected by missile/drone attacks, expanding conflict zone
· Impact: Rising regional systemic risk → Increased safe-haven capital flows globally.
· Focus: Whether more countries will directly join the conflict.

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: Iranian Speaker of Parliament publicly states that the war will be prolonged, calling for a "long-term war" stance domestically
· Impact: Extended conflict cycle → Middle-range oil prices, reinforced global inflation expectations.
· Focus: Whether it will evolve into a long-term attrition war similar to Russia-Ukraine.

8)
· Event: Pakistan leads efforts, with multiple countries promoting indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad
· Impact: Conflict enters a "fighting while negotiating" phase → Market volatility becomes normalized.
· Focus: Whether a stable ceasefire framework will form or negotiations will repeatedly break down.

9)
· Event: The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, two major energy chokepoints, face simultaneous threats (dual chokepoint risk)
· Impact: Restructuring of the global energy transportation system → Long-term rise in freight rates, insurance costs, and energy prices.
· Focus: Whether long-term rerouting and alternative route construction will occur.

10)
· Event: Israeli leadership states that the Middle East strategic landscape has changed, establishing multiple regional "safety belts"
· Impact: Reshaping regional order → Geopolitical conflicts shift from isolated clashes to structural confrontation.
· Focus: Whether a new round of regional military buildup and camp rivalries will escalate.