Silver and crude oil prices reverse, stemming from two structural changes in China

In the 2025 international commodity markets, rising precious metals prices and falling crude oil prices are drawing attention. A symbolic event is that silver’s price per troy ounce first exceeded crude oil prices in 44 years, since 1980. The historic “reverse act” reflects two structural shifts. This is the decarbonization trend accelerating in China and the long-term risk of domestic economic deflation.

In mid-December, a report by the well-known strategist Michael Hartnett of U.S. Bank of America Securities (BofA Securities) sparked heated discussion among market participants. The chart he focused on is the “ratio of crude oil to silver prices.” Calculated by dividing the price of 1 barrel of crude oil by the price of 1 ounce of silver, the ratio has been below 1 since December. Aside from the aberrations that appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic, the clear reversal in their prices is the first since 1980.

On December 24, the London spot price—used as an international benchmark for silver—rose to $72 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. Versus the end of 2024, it reached 2.5 times. Looking at crude oil, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices fell below $55 per barrel in mid-December, hitting the lowest point in about 4 years and 10 months. With a simple calculation, a coin of around 31 grams of silver can buy a barrel of crude oil.

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The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) and the Financial Times merged into the same media group in November 2015. Formed by two newspapers that were both launched in the 19th century—Japan and the United Kingdom—their alliance, under the banner of “high-quality, the most powerful economic journalism,” is advancing broad collaboration such as joint special features. This time, as part of that effort, the two newspapers are exchanging articles between their Chinese-language websites.