3.30 Review: High-level retreat, sector rotation accelerates, hold cash and wait for the right opportunity!

Ultra-short core idea: Rulers of the cycle first; leaders first! Everything below the leader is just follow-the-risers!

Ultra-short twenty-character mantra: The Way is best in simplicity; act according to the trend; the model comes first; turn a loss-making downturn into a spark; eliminate weakness and keep strength.

Today’s recap:
Weekend aluminum news provided a boost. Tianshan Aluminum Industry had an oversized single one-word limit-up; Changlu Aluminum and Minfa Aluminum also hit one-word limits. These are all due to quantitative efforts, and they may not have staying power. Tomorrow, watch whether Tianshan Aluminum Industry’s opening auction sealed order strengthens!

Chengdong Pharmaceutical had a one-word limit. It provides blood-supply support to the medical sector. The reason medical high-end stocks continued to strengthen today is exactly that! But today, the medical sector didn’t ferment into more first-board listings; expect differences tomorrow!

Huadian Liaoning Energy and Yu Energy Holding opened with deep-water auctions. One reason is aluminum grabbed the capital; the other is that Yu Energy got added to the monitoring list again, but it was a piece of news that came out only before the market opened. Retail investors obtain key information with a delay. Still, you can glean something from the auction and the open—those who reacted quickly got out in time, losing a bit less!

Today’s actions: Continue to go short.

Tomorrow’s thoughts:
At present, all three major power-sector leaders hit massive single-day limit downs, and both mid-tier and low-tier are sweeping through—there isn’t a single survivor. This kind of move is a textbook example of a retreating tide! Today was a retreat of one; tomorrow, observe whether it’s a retreat of two or a repair. The best trajectory is a retreat of two tomorrow, and a repair the day after tomorrow—only then might there be a three-wave move! It all depends on whether there are strong signals from low-tier names, such as a one-word limit-up or a high-open instant board; otherwise, the power sector is completely out of steam!

I. Emotion cycle
At present, it’s still the power sector cycle. The power sector is still in the retreat phase, and we can’t yet tell whether the power sector cycle has ended. At least we need tomorrow and the day after tomorrow’s K-line combination to confirm!

But tomorrow, power-sector stocks still need to be avoided. Of course, if tomorrow, in the low tier, there’s a big-order one-word limit-up or a high-open instant board, then the high tier might repair. It depends on the strength of the repair.

II. Market-wide resonance themes
Today, the only remaining theme that resonated with the overall market is medical. With MinoVance as the leader, today’s fermentation strength is still not enough. Also, it’s within the power-sector cycle, so we need to observe when power-sector repair happens whether the medical sector can hold up and absorb the capital diversion. If it can hold, medical might be able to drive sustained momentum!

III. Active themes
Mainly commercial space and fiber-optic communications. When power-sector divergence is happening and capital is being carried forward, most of these are arbitrage funds. A theme with persistence is one that, when power-sector repairs, can continue to absorb capital—so that power-sector weak repair and high-end names can’t break out into a third wave. Only then can it truly become the main line!

Tomorrow’s plan: Continue observing power and medical. If power shows a strong repair signal, you can pay attention to the leader’s repair. If medical continues to lock up the repair capital for the power sector, wait until the leader shows a model signal before paying attention. For now, the likelihood of continuing to stay in cash and short is very high!

Special thanks to @SanHuoZ@等风来DAN@斩断绿K@B淡定@儒生有福 for the strong support from five of you gold dust backers!

Thanks to the brothers who kept encouraging us!!!

Special thanks to @好旅旅游@冠华居@牛气拈来@新鲜的韭菜苗儿@扭转乾坤6688@巴特福来@湧往直前@tiger老谢@高支架布衣@大怕 for the great brotherly support who gave awards!

[Statement of this: No matter what kind of fan you are, I will not bring you any trades, and there is no benefit or giveaway. Participate cautiously. Thank you.]

[The above articles are only for personal sharing and record, and do not constitute any investment advice. Do not blindly follow or trade on that basis. If you buy or sell based on it, you do so at your own risk and responsibility for profits or losses! If everyone feels the sharing is helpful to you, please like, comment, and give rewards to increase the post’s heat!]