📊 TradFi Market Outlook | 3/30

Countdown to April, the market’s final deep breath.

This week is the last window before tariffs are implemented in April. Every day is more important than the last.

U.S. Stocks: The Last Calm
Trump’s tariffs will officially take effect on April 2, and the market is re-pricing accordingly. Tech stocks are under pressure, while defensive sectors (healthcare, consumer staples) are quietly strengthening — which is a signal in itself: smart money has already started reallocating. The Nasdaq 17,500 is a key support level; a break below could see it drop to 16,800.

Gold: One More Reason to Stay Long
Escalating trade war = intensifying global trade friction = rising demand for safe-haven assets. Gold will continue to benefit this week. Coupled with institutional reallocation at the start of the month, gold prices are expected to push again toward the 3,050-3,100 USD range.

Crude Oil: Both Directions Possible
If tariffs slow global economic growth, oil demand expectations will weaken, putting pressure on prices; but Middle East tensions can change suddenly, and geopolitical risk premiums may return instantly. WTI between $75-$80 is the core range; direction is uncertain, so for now, observe.

U.S. Dollar: Tariffs Are Bullish, But Sustainability Is Doubtful
Tariff policies temporarily boost the dollar, but the logic of trade war dragging down the economy will eventually suppress it. A rise followed by a fall is a historical pattern — don’t get caught up in the initial surge.

Bond Market: Panic Grows
The upward pressure on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains, and concerns about inflation rebound are far from gone. If April’s CPI data exceeds expectations, the bond market could face a new round of sell-off.

This Week’s Key Takeaways:

The implementation of tariffs on April 2 is the biggest catalyst this week. Before that, the market remains cautious; after implementation, the direction will quickly become clear. Hold onto gold, stay cautious on stocks, keep your powder dry — the only keyword this week is: wait.