Selling one pound results in a loss of 50 cents! The "late cold snap" for pork wholesalers: vendors outnumber customers, peak season sales cut in half.

This report (chinatimes.net.cn) journalist Zhang Zhi Beijing photography report

After the New Year, the sudden drop in pork prices has caught farmers off guard and has also caused wholesale profits to plummet.

Entering the Xinfadi meat market, the smell of fresh meat hits you, and the fresh pork shines brightly under the reddish lighting. However, on March 18, the reporter from the “Huaxia Times” saw that in the large hall of the Beijing Xinfadi meat wholesale market, there were far more vendors than customers.

Data from Mysteel monitoring shows that as of March 19, the national average selling price of external three-breed live pigs was 9.95 yuan/kg, approaching the 2018 low.

Not only is the spot market sluggish. Data shows that on March 18, the soon-to-be-delivered live pig futures contract 2603 dropped to 9.57 yuan/kg, with multiple contracts hitting new lows since being listed. According to data from the China Pig Website, domestic live pig prices fell to around 10.3 yuan/kg in mid-March, significantly lower than in February.

“Due to the historically high number of breeding sows previously, the current live pig supply is also at a high level. Coupled with the demand off-season after the Spring Festival in March, pork prices have hit new lows,” said Zou Yingji, a live pig analyst at Zhuochuang Information, to the reporter from the “Huaxia Times.”

Both Quantity and Price are Declining

In the past three years, China’s live pig production capacity has been temporarily high, with pork production hitting record highs and pork prices continuing to decline. However, this year’s pork prices are still unexpectedly low, with sales prices dropping below the purchase price.

Old Liu, a pork vendor at Xinfadi, told the reporter from the “Huaxia Times” that currently, the purchase price for live pigs is 6 yuan to 6.2 yuan per pound, but the selling prices for cuts like the front and hind pork legs are only 5 yuan to 6 yuan, resulting in an average loss of 50 cents per pound sold.

“Currently, the price for pure pork belly is 10 yuan per pound, and small ribs are 14 yuan per pound. Only these few items are profitable; the other cuts are basically losing money,” Old Liu said helplessly to the reporter.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, pork prices have been at a low level. It is understood that during the Spring Festival, the prices for front and hind pork legs at the Xinfadi meat market were around 8 yuan to 9 yuan per pound, 20% cheaper than before the New Year, and now they are down 30% compared to before the New Year.

“Overall, the average wholesale price of live pigs continues to operate at a low level and has further declined. From the process of wholesale live pigs at Xinfadi, the daily opening price basically remains stable, but the receiving price has been dipping significantly recently, sometimes the receiving price is only 12 yuan/kg, almost comparable to the price of live pigs. Unsold live pigs can only be promoted at lower prices, which puts pressure on the receiving price and also drags down the average wholesale price,” said Liu Tong, head of the statistics department at Xinfadi.

However, the low prices have not stimulated an increase in sales volume. On March 18, at vendor Old Liu’s stall, only 4 customers came in 2 hours.

“Business is tough now; there are hardly any people from Monday to Thursday, but more on weekends. It looks a bit busy, but during the weekdays, it seems like there are staff everywhere,” Old Liu said.

In terms of sales volume, since March, Old Liu’s stall has been selling 3 to 4 pigs a day, down from 4 to 5 in previous years; during the Spring Festival, which is the peak sales season, he could sell about 16 to 18 pigs a day, compared to an average of 20 to 30 during last year’s Spring Festival, which is also a reduction.

The same cold wind has blown into the homes of farmers.

Old Hou, a farmer from Wuqing District in Tianjin, calculated an account for the reporter from the “Huaxia Times”: not counting employee costs, the cost of raising pigs, including feed, vaccines, and other expenses, is about 7 yuan per pound, but before this year’s Spring Festival, the price of live pigs had dropped to 6 yuan per pound, and after the Spring Festival, during the off-season, it even fell to the 5 yuan range. Based on a pig weighing 240 pounds, selling one pig results in a loss of nearly 300 yuan.

Old Hou’s situation is not unique. In recent years, with market price fluctuations, losses have become a common problem for farmers.

Data shows that as of March 18, the national pig-to-grain ratio is 4.22:1, and the pig-to-grain ratio has remained in the excessive decline early warning zone, with live pig prices dropping to historic lows, 18.4% lower than the industry-recognized break-even point (5:1). Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that by February 2026, the loss rate among large-scale farmers had reached 68%, and the loss rate among small and medium-sized farmers exceeded 80%.

Production Capacity Control Policies May Continue

To stabilize pork prices, starting from 2025, a series of regulatory policies targeting pork prices will gradually advance and be implemented. On one hand, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a seminar to promote high-quality development of the pig industry, proposing to “reasonably eliminate breeding sows, appropriately reduce the stock of breeding sows, decrease secondary fattening, control the slaughter weight of fat pigs, and strictly control new capacity,” releasing signals to “reverse the internal competition” in the pig industry while emphasizing the need to “strengthen comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity,” and orderly reduce the stock of breeding sows; on the other hand, the storage efforts are continually increasing. On June 11, 2025, the first round of substantial storage began with an additional temporary storage of 10,000 tons. After that, on August 25, the first pure additional storage of 10,000 tons was implemented without counterpart outflow, directly withdrawing from market supply. On September 19, again initiated a storage of 15,000 tons of central frozen pork, with a scale larger than the previous round; in 2025, excluding rotation storage, a total of 35,000 tons of frozen pork was stored. On March 4, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance and other departments, launched the first round of central frozen pork storage for 2026, totaling 10,000 tons.

However, Zou Yingji stated that frozen pork storage and other measures generally play a regulatory role, and under significant supply pressure, their regulatory effect will be weakened. Pork prices are still mainly driven by supply and demand, thus insufficient demand combined with the release of previous high production capacity leads to pork prices remaining at persistently low levels.

“Looking at the prices over the past five years, pork prices have gone through two rounds of small cycles, and the impact of pig diseases on the market has gradually weakened. Changes in production capacity driven by profitability have caused fluctuations in pork prices, and the amplitude of these fluctuations has gradually narrowed, with prices in a downward trend. Since the end of January, the breeding sector has been in continuous loss, with an average loss of about 225 yuan per pig in mid-March. Losses in the breeding sector do not mean that pork prices have bottomed out, but the current pork prices have dropped to relatively low levels, and further price drops are unlikely to support increased demand. So even if the current market is generally slow, the willingness of the breeding sector to lower prices is not high,” Zou Yingji indicated.

On March 17, the national average price for lean meat type live pigs monitored by Zhuochuang Information was 10.08 yuan/kg, leaving limited room for further price drops.

From a policy perspective, production capacity control policies are expected to continue. Zou Yingji indicated that the breeding sector may attempt to control the number of live pigs by adjusting the breeding rate of sows to reduce losses. Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuochuang Information regarding breeding sows, it is expected that pork prices will begin to rise in the second half of 2026.

Editor: Xu Yunqian Chief Editor: Gong Peijia