3.29 Review: Old dragon and new dragon both hold steady, the peak day remains consistent without deviation the next day

The following is a review of Friday’s market and a sharing of thoughts for Monday, divided into six parts (I was busy today and posting late; starting tomorrow, I will post the review earlier).[淘股吧]

1. Index Aspect: The index is mainly experiencing box-shaped fluctuations in the short term, with extreme volume contraction coupled with regulatory easing, making it suitable for consecutive board rallying. The market has returned to the environment of speculative trading on consecutive boards seen before 2024; henceforth, focus on “heavy on individual stocks, light on indices.”

2. Market Sentiment: As the index bottomed on March 23, short-term sentiment has stabilized and rebounded, with the main focus on electricity. However, electricity is currently nearing the end of its third phase, transitioning from a main rise to fluctuations. On Friday, the market saw a surge in lithium batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals, while chemicals continued to remain active; the focus going forward will be on the rotation of these directions.

3. Sector Situation:
** 1. Electricity.** In the previous post, I detailed the three phases of electricity. With the high-level fluctuations of Huadian Liaoning breaking the board, it signals the end of the main rise in the third phase, transitioning into a period of fluctuations. Whether it transitions into the fourth phase of the main rise or retreats will need to be observed closely. Overall sector leader: Yunnan Energy Holdings; third-phase consecutive board leader: Huadian Liaoning. Other key stocks: Huadian Energy, Dongfang Xinneng, Guangxi Energy, Jinke Power, Ningbo Energy, etc.
** From the perspective of supplementary rally speculation,** since Huadian Liaoning broke the board on Thursday, Friday should focus on the electricity sector’s 1-to-2 and 2-to-3 transitions. For the 2-to-3 transition, there is only one Zhongmin Energy, which opened high and closed low, clearly not meeting the buying point. The first board Guangxi Energy had a small single limit-up and added orders in the bidding, representing a buying point for supplementary rally speculation. Jinke Power is a switchboard born out of Guangxi Energy’s limit-up after a deadlock, serving as a 1-to-2 transition.

** From the perspective of sector rotation,** on Friday, both lithium batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals peaked, while electricity was the weakest. Therefore, during the day, it is advisable to take the lead in electricity as a core for anti-dip. Yunnan Energy Holdings is the most resistant to dips and has support due to being oversold, thus a good buying point would be when it retraces to the moving average and the zero axis.

 **  2. Lithium Batteries.** Friday marked the first explosion, which means peak, and the next day following such a peak should be approached with caution. Therefore, for this direction on Monday, caution is advised as lithium batteries should mainly follow trends while participating in sector rotation, focusing on buying divergences and selling consensus. Furthermore, the Friday explosion in lithium batteries may be due to funds from some high-position tech hardware cutting towards the lower-position lithium batteries. Key stocks (4B): Rongjie Co.; 20cm core: Haike Xinyuan; other key stocks: Shida Shenghua, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yongxing Materials, etc. Sector middleweights: Ganfeng Lithium.  
**  3. Innovative Pharmaceuticals.** Friday saw a simultaneous explosion with lithium batteries, also reaching peak, so caution is needed for consensus on this direction on Monday. Pharmaceuticals are more about rotation from the main electricity line to the side line, in a form resembling a "small medicine box" flying along with electricity. In the future, when there are divergences in electricity, innovative pharmaceuticals might become active. Key stocks (4B): Meinuohua; 20cm core: Shutai Shen, Ketaobiotechnology, etc.; other key stocks: Wanbangde, Jiuan Medical, etc.  

** 4. Chemicals.** Chemicals have been slowly trending recently, with daily small range limit-ups maintaining heat, but the scale is not large. This direction is suitable for ambush; however, on Friday, its intensity was weaker than that of lithium batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals. Therefore, if one wishes to participate in this direction, one can only find the most core individual stock divergence opportunities for speculative rotation. Core sector stocks: Jinmei Technology, Baichuan Co., Jinniu Chemical, Jinzhen Da, Chitianhua, etc.

4. Nodes:
Currently, the market has two nodes:
** The first**, the index bottoming coinciding with the first board of the index’s strong upward line, namely the first board on 3.24, and Friday’s four boards: Xinneng Taishan (electric), Rongjie Co. (lithium), Meinuohua (pharmaceutical).
** The second**, the transition node on the day Huadian Liaoning broke the board, namely Thursday’s first or second board, with Friday seeing a total collapse of 2-to-3, leaving only Friday’s 2-board echelon (inner cut and outer cut).

5. Profitability Effect:
The current profitability effect mainly lies in the small-cap consecutive boards (extreme volume contraction + index box-shaped fluctuations + regulatory easing), especially in the mainstream sectors (particularly the main line of electricity) with consecutive boards at low positions, resulting in low explosion rates and high error tolerance. Additionally, the profitability effect from leading stocks rebounding from oversold conditions is also quite good (with a higher win rate under regulatory easing), primarily due to Yunnan Energy Holdings providing good feedback after retracing to the 20-day line.
6. Thoughts for Tomorrow (if there are changes, I will notify in the comments tomorrow morning):
With lithium batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals peaking on Friday, according to the principle of not entering consensus on the next day after a peak, these two directions should be primarily cautious on Monday; electricity’s high-position Huadian Liaoning and Huadian Energy should avoid moving anomalies and lagging rises, making it unsuitable for short-term participation. As a weather vane, if electricity shows no signs of retreat, for instance, if these high-position cores do not show significant negative feedback and a few lower-position stocks limit-up to assist, the buying point for the overall leader Yunnan Energy Holdings should be postponed, or wait until the afternoon. If intraday time-sharing shows good support, one can look for time-sharing low points to participate. For those with a bottom position, it is suitable to roll to do T to lower costs; moreover, for friends who like to do relay trading, tomorrow’s 2-board node echelon will be a knockout round, and the winners can participate with a small position (however, the last breakout dragon Liaoning was an 8-board, and the supplementary rally is around 5 boards; good buying points should be Thursday or Friday, and the 2-to-3 cost-effectiveness is not high, so if you want to participate, try to do so with a very small position to test the waters).

   For relay trading, I particularly like Teacher Kobe's model: **Leaders → Supplementary Rally → Switch**, which means when there is a main line leader, and the main line has not retreated, focus on the leader if there is a buying point; when the main sector shifts from a rise to fluctuations and the leader lags, supplementary rallies begin to appear, then switch to the supplementary rally (electricity); when the main sector weakens, switch to other lower-position sectors (excluding electricity).  

Disclaimer: The above content is merely a sharing of personal trading thoughts and logic review, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks, and trading should be done with caution; any actions taken based on this are done at one’s own risk.