Layer chicken chick prices increase month-on-month, with polarization in restocking: large-scale farms "advancing" while smallholders "wait and see" | Industry Updates

Financial Association March 20 Report (Reporter Zhang Chenjing) Currently, it is the peak season for replenishing breeding hens in spring, with the price of chick hens rising nearly 15% month-on-month. Recent interviews by Financial Association reporters have revealed that against the backdrop of persistently low egg prices and losses in farming profits, this spring’s replenishment is showing structural differentiation. Large-scale farming enterprises maintain a normal replenishment rhythm, while small and medium-sized farmers are generally cautious and hesitant, reflecting a low willingness to replenish. Many industry insiders believe the egg market will still face certain supply pressures within the next six months.

According to the latest data from Zhuochuang Information, the average price of chick hens nationwide rose to 3.80 yuan/kg in the third week of March, with significant price differences across production areas. The price increased by 14.46% compared to the same period last month, while year-on-year it decreased by 11.21%.

Behind the rise in chick hen prices, market demand has shown some differentiation. “Currently, most large-scale farming enterprises maintain normal replenishment plans, and a few companies have slightly increased their replenishment enthusiasm, while the replenishment intentions of small and medium-sized farming units are generally average, adopting a cautious and watchful attitude,” said Liu Xu, an egg analyst at Zhuochuang Information, in an interview with Financial Association reporters.

Xiaoming Co., Ltd. (300967.SZ) also confirmed this change in monthly sales data. According to the company’s February sales report, it sold 21,887,700 chickens, with sales revenue of 64.2019 million yuan, reflecting changes of -4.35% and 9.57% respectively. In terms of price, the average selling price of chicken products was 2.93 yuan/chicken, up 14% compared to January.

Relevant personnel from Xiaoming Co., Ltd. told Financial Association reporters: “The company’s main customers are large-scale chicken farms. The overall supply-demand pattern in the industry is in a tight balance. Although the replenishment enthusiasm and chick prices slightly warmed in February, price pressures still exist, and the demand side is expected to further recover in March.”

Small and medium-sized farmers are particularly cautious under the current market conditions, mainly because the national inventory of laying hens remains at a relatively high historical level, while feed raw material prices are rising. In March, profits from breeding hens are still in a slight loss state, and the future trend of egg prices remains unclear.

Recently, egg prices have slightly warmed. An egg distributor told Financial Association reporters that current egg prices are relatively stable. According to Mysteel statistics, as of March 18, the average price in major egg production areas nationwide was 3.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17 yuan/kg compared to the price on March 1, with a rise of 5.59%. Industry analysis suggests that the upcoming Qingming Festival stocking may boost egg prices but is unlikely to support a trend reversal, and we need to wait for capacity recovery.

Regarding future market judgments, Liu Xu stated that based on previous chick sales estimates, the number of old hens to be slaughtered nationwide from March to June may exceed the number of new laying hens coming into production. Therefore, there is a trend of decreasing inventory, which may gradually lower to around 1.32 billion. The demand in March may show a trend of recovery, and the market demand for eggs in April and May may fluctuate slightly due to holiday effects. Overall, the national egg price is expected to maintain a long-term level of 3.00-3.50 yuan/kg, with potential for further increase in late August.

(Financial Association Reporter Zhang Chenjing)