$BTC monthly line has seen 5 consecutive declines, from an ATH of USD 126,080 to now USD 66,548, a drop of 47%. However, the ETF saw a net inflow of 1.53 billion USD in March, with institutions taking over the panic chips from retail investors.

The contradiction has arisen.
CryptoQuant data: The BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, and long-term holders are still hoarding. However, the production cost for miners is USD 88,000, losing USD 19,000 for each coin mined—this is the most extreme cost inversion since the bear market of 2022.
Miners are being forced to sell BTC to transition to AI computing power, with some mining companies seeing AI revenue accounting for up to 70%. Who is selling? The miners. Who is buying? The whales—over the past 30 days, they have net purchased 61,000 BTC.
On one side are the passive sellers being crushed by costs, and on the other side are the active buyers seizing the opportunity to buy during panic.
If BTC recovers to USD 72,500 in April and the selling pressure from miners eases, then the probability of a rebound to USD 78,000-82,000 in May significantly increases. Observation trigger: whether the net outflow speed from miners' wallets slows to an average of <500 BTC per day.
The last time the cost inversion for miners was this severe was in November 2022. Three months later, BTC rose from USD 16,500 to USD 25,000.