What is the secret behind Geely's Hong Kong stocks soaring, with a 15-day market value increase exceeding 2.5 years of actual profits?

How does the technological moat support Geely’s continuous rise in market value?

· Auto Thirteen Line ID: wzhauto2023 ·

On March 25, Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (0175.HK, hereinafter referred to as “Geely Automobile”) continued its strong upward trend, with an accumulated increase of over 40% in the last 15 trading days, touching HKD 21.32 at one point, and its total market value surpassed HKD 230 billion, reaching a nearly four-year high. This impressive performance quickly became the focus of attention in the Hong Kong stock automotive sector and even the entire capital market.

In this regard, Wang Liusheng, the chief analyst of the automotive industry at China Merchants Securities, stated in an interview with Auto Thirteen Line that the rise in Geely’s stock price is not only a result of industry stock price recovery, but more importantly, the company’s own core advantages. Geely relies on robust products and technological support, providing ample momentum and resilience for stock market growth. This is not a result of short-term market speculation, but an inevitable outcome under multiple favorable factors.

In fact, what is more noteworthy than the temporary rise in stock prices is that Geely Automobile’s transformation results have entered a full realization phase. Geely has not only made breakthrough progress in the new energy sector but has also demonstrated strong competitiveness across multiple dimensions such as intelligence and globalization. Many well-known institutions, both domestic and international, including HSBC Research, Citibank, and Macquarie, have given “buy” and “overweight” ratings, with HSBC Research even setting a target price of HKD 30, indicating that the company still has significant upward potential, fully reflecting the market’s high recognition and firm optimism regarding Geely Automobile’s development prospects.

01

In 15 trading days, Geely’s market value increased by the equivalent of 30 months of profit

Recently, Geely Automobile has shown a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative increase of 40% in stock price over 15 trading days, setting a new high for its stock price in four years. As of the statistical point, Geely Automobile’s stock price rose by 22.74% compared to 15 days ago, successfully surpassing HKD 230 billion in market value, with an increase of HKD 41.86 billion, approximately RMB 36.933 billion. This incremental market value corresponds to Geely Automobile’s core net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 14.41 billion for 2025, meaning that in just 15 trading days, the increase in its market value is equivalent to the profit amount of the past 30 months, indicating the level of market recognition.

Comparing with the performance of major automotive companies in the industry during the same period further highlights the uniqueness of Geely’s stock price increase. Great Wall Motors’ stock price slightly fell from HKD 12.78 to HKD 12.76 over 15 days, Li Auto increased slightly from HKD 69.85 to HKD 70.45, with an increase of only 0.86%, while Xiaopeng Motors dropped sharply from HKD 97.45 to HKD 72.2. Against the backdrop of differentiated stock price performances among various automakers, Geely’s stock price has risen against the trend, fully affirming the capital market’s high optimism and firm confidence in its development prospects.

Looking back at the historical stock price of Geely Automobile, this rise is not an isolated case; its long-term growth trajectory has consistently resonated with the development of China’s automotive industry. From 2008 to 2010, Geely’s stock price soared from less than HKD 0.2 to nearly HKD 5, an increase of over 25 times; from 2016 to 2018, the stock price rose again from less than HKD 3 to nearly HKD 30, achieving a tenfold increase. Over the past decade, Geely’s stock price has accumulated an astonishing increase of 150 times, a result that cannot be separated from the golden development period of the Chinese automotive market. In 2009, driven by policy, the Chinese automotive market first surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest market, with sales exceeding 18 million units the following year; in 2018, sales in the Chinese market further climbed to 28.08 million units. During the same period, Geely Automobile’s sales also achieved qualitative leaps, growing from 230,000 units in 2008 to over 1.5 million units in 2018, a growth of 6.5 times.

Beyond the industrial dividends, Geely’s strategic layout and transformation are the core support for its long-term stock price growth. During this period, Geely released the “Ningbo Declaration,” fully shifting towards forward-looking research and development; after acquiring Volvo, its high-end and global layout accelerated, successfully transforming from a manufacturer of cheap transportation vehicles to a high-quality, global automotive enterprise, also becoming one of the hallmark enterprises of the rise of China’s automotive industry.

It is worth noting that the strong performance of Geely’s stock price this time is fundamentally different from previous surges driven by industry cycles or significant merger events, stemming more from substantial improvements in the company’s fundamentals. The current Chinese automotive market has entered a phase of stock competition, but the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has brought new growth opportunities to the industry. In January and February 2026, the domestic market share of new energy vehicles reached 41.2%, creating historic conditions for independent brands to overtake in a curve.

Geely Automobile’s transformation results are now fully realized, becoming the core driving force for its continuously rising stock price. On one hand, Geely has achieved breakthrough progress in the field of new energy, with its new energy brand matrix continuously gaining momentum, and product competitiveness continually improving; on the other hand, its layouts in intelligence and globalization also demonstrate strong capabilities. Today, Geely is rapidly transforming from a traditional automotive enterprise to a technology-based enterprise focused on “new energy + intelligence + globalization.” This comprehensive capability upgrade not only aligns with industry development trends but also continuously solidifies its core competitiveness, becoming the key logic for the capital market’s sustained optimism about its development.

02

Three punches driving stock price rise: Sales, annual report, new models

In January and February 2026, Geely Automobile’s cumulative sales reached 476,000 units, maintaining the top position in sales among Chinese independent brands for two consecutive months. From the sales structure perspective, multiple brands under the group achieved steady growth: in February, Geely brand sales were 154,900 units, Lynk & Co brand sales were 27,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 59%; Zeekr brand sales were 23,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 70%.

More significantly, Geely’s new energy transformation results have been fully realized. In February, Geely’s new energy sales reached 117,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with a new energy penetration rate of 57%, significantly higher than the industry average of 44.9%. As the main brand for new energy, Geely Galaxy performed particularly well, with cumulative sales of 156,000 units from January to February 2026 and single-month sales of 73,000 units in February, surpassing a historical cumulative sales of 1.96 million units as of February 2026, providing strong support for the group’s overall sales growth. Moreover, Geely’s overseas export sales in February reached 60,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 138%. Geely’s ability to continue leading in the fiercely competitive market fully reflects the simultaneous leap in its product strength and brand strength, while the impressive performance in the new energy sector further solidifies the fundamental basis for the stock price’s strength.

In addition to stable leading sales, Geely’s latest annual report also delivered a high-quality response that far exceeded market expectations, further strengthening capital market confidence. The data shows that in 2025, Geely Automobile achieved total revenue of RMB 345.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, setting a new historical record; core net profit attributable to the parent company reached RMB 14.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%, with the profit growth rate significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, presenting a favorable development trend of simultaneous growth in volume and price, as well as quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. During the same period, the net cash flow from operating activities reached RMB 47.274 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.23%, providing solid support for continuous technological R&D, product iteration, and globalization layout.

Wang Liusheng told Auto Thirteen Line that Geely’s rising stock price is a result of the resonance between industry valuation recovery and the company’s own core advantages. Last year, the entire automotive sector performed relatively weakly, providing a foundation for valuation rebound. In the first two months of this year, auto companies continued to see high growth in exports, coupled with rising international oil prices, further benefiting the overseas expansion of new energy models, catalyzing the entire industry. Geely’s uniqueness lies in its early start in global layout, a more mature system, outstanding overseas risk resistance, and significant high-end results, with brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co continuously enhancing profitability, complemented by a complete technical and product matrix, and a clear cycle of new products coming up.

On the product side, Geely’s offensive is fierce. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the group has launched several heavyweight models, including the Zeekr 8X, Galaxy M9, and Lynk & Co 900. Notably, the explosive pre-sale of the Zeekr 8X has become a key trigger for the stock price increase. The pre-sale performance significantly exceeded industry expectations: within just 38 minutes of launching the pre-sale, the number of small orders surpassed 10,000; within 1.5 hours, it approached 20,000; and within 48 hours, the order volume exceeded 30,000, clearly showing market acceptance. Meanwhile, the Zeekr 9X has maintained its position as the best-selling large SUV in the 500,000-level segment for four consecutive months, with an average transaction price exceeding RMB 530,000, effectively driving product structure elevation and overall profitability enhancement.

The significant rise in Geely Automobile’s stock price is not coincidental but an inevitable result of multiple favorable factors resonating. Maintaining the top position among independent brands in sales, exceeding market expectations with annual report performance, and continuously launching heavyweight new cars have collectively formed the three core catalysts driving the stock price upward, showcasing the company’s strong development resilience and industry-leading core competitiveness.

03

Technological dreaming opens unlimited space for Geely’s “market dream rate”

If the current valuation is a recognition of Geely’s technological strength and performance realization, then the dream space built by full-stack technology and a globalization blueprint is the core logic supporting its continuous valuation increase and opening up future growth ceilings. Geely’s stock price continues to soar, reconstructing the market’s understanding of its “market dream rate.” This “dream-building” confidence from Geely comes from the technological moat it has built in three core areas: power, intelligent driving, and battery technology, which not only serve as a solid support for the company’s transformation but are also the fundamental reasons capital markets grant high valuation premiums.

The Haosi Power, a joint venture between Geely and Renault, has established a globally leading technological system. With 17 production bases, 5 major R&D centers, an annual production capacity exceeding 8 million units, and operations covering over 130 countries and regions, it firmly ranks among the top three globally, laying a solid foundation for its globalization journey. Its independently developed HORSEB15 engine has set a production record with a thermal efficiency of 47.26%, winning the “China Heart” award for the top ten engines of 2025; the full-range power matrix can meet 80% of the global passenger car market demand, giving Geely a high ground in global power competition.

In the intelligent driving sector, Qianli Technology has become the core engine of Geely’s global intelligence. The jointly developed Qianli Haohuan G-ASD assisted driving system, leveraging top-level computing power, vast data, and the SmartAIAgent architecture, has entered the global first tier. This year, the G-ASDH7 solution will be widely adopted in Lynk & Co and Geely Galaxy models, with high-speed L3, urban L4, and Robotaxi trial operations gradually being implemented, continuously realizing the promise of intelligence and bringing “smart travel” from dream to reality.

In terms of battery technology at the core of new energy, Geely is aiming for the future. It has integrated and launched the “Shen Dun Gold Brick Battery,” covering super fast charging, high energy density, and super hybrid scenarios; its self-developed all-solid-state battery will complete Pack off-line and vehicle verification in 2026, with a 20Ah-level cell energy density exceeding 400Wh/kg, and a CLTC range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, expected to completely eliminate pure electric range anxiety and inject the strongest “dream fuel” into its new energy transformation.

Geely’s technological advantages are not isolated breakthroughs but a systematic barrier formed by full-stack collaboration and platform sharing. High-level intelligent driving, high-end batteries, and other core technologies efficiently empower all categories of vehicles, maximizing technological value; at the same time, adhering to an open ecosystem, Geely collaborates deeply with Qianli Technology, NVIDIA, Waymo, Lotus, and Mercedes-Benz, accelerating technological iteration through a global innovation alliance, continuously extending the boundaries of technological dreaming.

Regarding Geely’s future growth space, Wang Liusheng stated that the domestic automotive market has now entered a stock stage, and Geely, relying on steady products, new energy intelligent technology support, along with the expansion into overseas markets, has ample growth resilience for future performance. It is this first-mover advantage in globalization and the ability to build dreams through technology that allows Geely’s “market dream rate” to no longer be limited to current performance but to point towards an infinite global market. As overseas markets continue to expand, new technologies roll out in mass production, and the intelligent ecosystem continues to improve, Geely is transforming from a traditional automotive enterprise into a technology-based global giant. The market’s recognition of its valuation essentially reflects a high expectation of this technological dream and future space, which is the fundamental driving force supporting Geely’s continuous rise in stock price and opening up new growth limits.

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